Qarabag v Neftchi Baku prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Qarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku QARABAG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Qarabag win~~56%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.983

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qarabag win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Qarabag 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
1′KICK-OFF Qarabag v Neftchi Baku
12′Neftchi Baku find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–25–46
12′We said Qarabag at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Qarabag 0–1 Neftchi Baku
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Qarabag win: 56% at kick-off, 29% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Neftchi Baku win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Qarabag win 29%)
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Qarabag 1–1 Neftchi Baku
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Qarabag win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Qarabag win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Neftchi Baku win 22%)
19′O. Kashchuk scores for Qarabag on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 52–26–22
34′A goal for Neftchi Baku on 34′. 1–1 · 48–30–22
35′We said Qarabag at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–2 · 21–27–52
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Qarabag 1–2 Neftchi Baku
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Qarabag win: 56% at kick-off, 21% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Neftchi Baku win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Qarabag win 21%)
39′We said Qarabag at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–27–54
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Neftchi Baku
45′HALF-TIME Qarabag 1–2 Neftchi Baku
46′Qarabag find the net on 45′. 1–2 · 17–27–56
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Qarabag win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
50′SECOND HALF Qarabag 1–2 Neftchi Baku
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Neftchi Baku · On: B. Sambou · Off: A. Akinyemi
51′We said Qarabag at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
52′52′: D. Savic on the scoresheet for Neftchi Baku. 1–2 · 14–27–59
53′We said Qarabag at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–10–87
53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–10–87
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Qarabag 1–3 Neftchi Baku · D. Savic
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Qarabag win: 56% at kick-off, 3% now
59′A goal for Neftchi Baku on 59′. 1–3 · 2–8–89
59′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–2–98
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Qarabag 1–4 Neftchi Baku
60′GOAL DISALLOWED · 60' Neftchi Baku
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Qarabag · On: R. Cephas · Off: J. Mouaddib
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Qarabag · On: R. Cephas · Off: Matheus Silva Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Qarabag · On: J. Montiel · Off: Pedro Bicalho
70′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Neftchi Baku · On: D. Savic · Off: L. Tupta
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Neftchi Baku · On: M. Hasanov · Off: Igor Ribeiro Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Neftchi Baku
89′A goal for Qarabag on 89′. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Qarabag 2–3 Neftchi Baku
93′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neftchi Baku · On: M. Seck · Off: R. Abbasov
94′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Qarabag · On: M. Qurbanly · Off: Z. Sawo
94′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Qarabag · On: S. Lobato · Off: C. Makreckis
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Neftchi Baku
95′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Neftchi Baku · On: I. Mathew · Off: Gustavo Klismahn
96′Qarabag find the net on 90′. 2–3 · 0–2–98
96′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–97–1
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Qarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Neftchi Baku
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Neftchi Baku win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Qarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku
FTQarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku · Qarabag win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Qarabag are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qarabag 56%, draw 22%, Neftchi Baku 22%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Qarabag v Neftchi BakuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Qarabag win56%

Draw22%

Neftchi Baku win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTofiq Bahramov Stadium

Line-ups

Qarabag

Neftchi Baku

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qarabag

Neftchi Baku

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 9 Oct · Premyer Liqa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Qarabag

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Mahammadaliyev

8 M. Jankovic

20 Kady Borges

2 Matheus Silva

5 B. Langa

9 Z. Sawo

25 C. Makreckis

21 O. Kashchuk

7 J. Mouaddib

35 Pedro Bicalho

4 B. Varkonyi

Coach · Qurban Qurbanov

Substitutes

23 · M. Zlomislic

12 · T. Hasanov

55 · B. Huseynov

22 · M. Qurbanly

32 · H. Cabrayilzada

10 · J. Montiel

29 · R. Cephas

11 · R. Khadra

88 · S. Lobato

39 · J. Gnali

Neftchi Baku

Formation not confirmed

93 R. Cafarov

3 R. Abbasov

77 F. Sacko

5 Igor Ribeiro

55 A. Gravillon

29 L. Tupta

33 Breno Almeida

26 A. Akinyemi

20 Gustavo Klismahn

88 V. Sevelj

11 A. Skribek

Coach · Yuriy Vernydub

Substitutes

81 · M. Hasanov

8 · E. Mahmudov

14 · E. Badalov

7 · E. Safarov

6 · S. D'Almeida

24 · M. Seck

18 · I. Mathew

97 · B. Sambou

70 · A. Shtogrin

10 · F. Vargas

22 · D. Jubitana

27 · D. Savic

Our number · qarabag winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market48%

Us56%

~~Market~~48%

We make Qarabag a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qarabag v Neftchi Baku~~1.92 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 17 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~3 v 1

~~The market · Qarabag win~~48% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qarabag win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qarabag win	56%	48%	+8
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Neftchi Baku win	22%	25%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
Qarabag or draw	78%	75%	+3
Qarabag clean sheet	33%	–	–
Neftchi Baku clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 5.7 3.0 1 9.6 9.9 5.6 2.1 2 8.9 9.6 5.3 3 5.7 6.2 3.4 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qarabag down, Neftchi Baku across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 892 Premyer Liqa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qarabag at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Neftchi Baku away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Qarabag, 1.11 for Neftchi Baku. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEF 2–1 QAR · NEF 1–5 QAR · QAR 2–0 NEF · QAR 3–0 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 17 Aug

QARABAG

WWWDWW3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

NEFTCHI BAKU

WLWWWD5–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	6	+7	16
4	Turan	7	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	7	0	8
9	Qabala	7	−8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	8	−11	2