Qabala v Sabah FA prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Qabala 0–4 Sabah FA SABAH FA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sabah FA win~~67%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.168

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.140

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sabah FA win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sabah FA 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 14–20–66
1′KICK-OFF Qabala v Sabah FA
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Sabah FA win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
36′We said Sabah FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 15–30–55
38′We said Sabah FA at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 15–31–54
45′We said Sabah FA at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 3–12–86
45′HALF-TIME Qabala 0–1 Sabah FA
45′SECOND HALF Qabala 0–1 Sabah FA
46′A goal for Sabah FA on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–12–86
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Qabala 0–1 Sabah FA
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Sabah FA win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qabala · On: E. Cekici · Off: M. Ubochioma
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sabah FA · On: T. Puchacz · Off: J. Bulus
50′Sabah FA find the net on 50′. 0–1 · 2–12–86
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Sabah FA
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sabah FA win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sabah FA · On: J. Mickels · Off: X. Severina
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sabah FA · On: C. Nwachukwu · Off: Y. Lachaab
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qabala · On: Bruno Silva · Off: I. Akinade
71′We said Sabah FA at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
74′Sabah FA find the net on 74′. 0–1 · 1–9–91
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sabah FA · On: I. Lepinjica · Off: R. Fernandes
75′We said Sabah FA at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Qabala 0–2 Sabah FA · A. Isayev
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Sabah FA win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
77′We said Sabah FA at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Qabala · On: Z. Shakarkhanov · Off: J. Sierra
89′A goal for Sabah FA on 88′. 0–2 · 0–0–100
89′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Qabala 0–3 Sabah FA · J. Mickels
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sabah FA · On: K. Aliyev · Off: Carlos Eduardo
93′A goal for Sabah FA on 90′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Qabala 0–4 Sabah FA
FTFULL TIME Qabala 0–4 Sabah FA
FTQabala 0–4 Sabah FA · Sabah FA win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sabah FA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qabala 14%, draw 19%, Sabah FA 67%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Qabala v Sabah FABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Qabala win14%

Draw19%

Sabah FA win67%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Line-ups

Qabala

Sabah FA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qabala

Sabah FA

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
9	Qabala	7	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Qabala

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Agayev

66 N. Rashidov

10 S. Shahniyarov

27 E. Ahmadov

16 I. Amoah

6 J. Sierra

24 I. Akinade

80 M. Ubochioma

3 Edson Eduardo

4 E. Camalov

23 Raphael Utzig

Coach · Jeton Bekjiri

Substitutes

94 · H. Hushanov

11 · A. Mammadov

22 · F. Iskandarov

13 · N. Aliyev

74 · S. Damadayev

21 · Z. Shakarkhanov

7 · Bruno Silva

5 · N. Monzango

81 · S. Agayev

2 · A. Yaqubov

8 · E. Cekici

Sabah FA

Formation not confirmed

94 R. Mirzammadov

5 R. Dashdamirov

17 T. Mutallimov

6 A. Khaybulaev

35 J. Bulus

10 A. Isayev

34 X. Severina

33 Junior Almeida

88 R. Fernandes

23 Y. Lachaab

18 Carlos Eduardo

Coach · Valdas Dambrauskas

Substitutes

1 · A. Ramazanov

20 · J. Mickels

13 · I. Lepinjica

11 · K. Parris

7 · U. Rakhmonaliyev

9 · K. Aliyev

21 · V. Simic

27 · T. Puchacz

99 · O. Mbina

16 · R. Rustamli

4 · A. McCarthy

8 · C. Nwachukwu

Our number · sabah fa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market70%

Us67%

~~Market~~70%

We make Sabah FA a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qabala v Sabah FA~~0.79 – 2.08

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~9 v 2

~~The market · Sabah FA win~~70% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sabah FA win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qabala win	14%	10%	+4
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Sabah FA win	67%	70%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Qabala or draw	33%	30%	+3
Qabala clean sheet	13%	–	–
Sabah FA clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 5.8 12.1 12.0 8.3 4.4 1 5.0 9.1 9.3 6.4 3.4 2 3.7 3.7 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qabala down, Sabah FA across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 892 Premyer Liqa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qabala at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sabah FA away: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Qabala, 2.08 for Sabah FA. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAB 7–1 QAB · QAB 2–2 SAB · QAB 0–1 SAB · SAB 0–0 QAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 15 Aug

QABALA

LDWLLL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

SABAH FA

WWWWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	6	+7	16
4	Turan	7	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	7	0	8
9	Qabala	7	−8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	8	−11	2