Qabala v Qarabag prediction · Premyer Liqa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

QabalaDrawQarabag

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Qarabag 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Qarabag are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qabala 11%, draw 16%, Qarabag 73%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Qabala v QarabagBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Qabala win11%

Draw16%

Qarabag win73%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qabala

Qarabag

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 17 Oct · Premyer Liqa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
9	Qabala	9	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · qarabag winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Qarabag a 73% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qabala v Qarabag~~0.77 – 2.39

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 17~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qabala win	11%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Qarabag win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Qabala or draw	27%	–	–
Qabala clean sheet	10%	–	–
Qarabag clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.9%

0123450 4.3 10.4 11.9 9.4 5.7 2.81 3.6 7.7 9.0 7.1 4.3 2.12 3.1 3.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qabala down, Qarabag across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 900 Premyer Liqa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qabala at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Qarabag away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Qabala, 2.39 for Qarabag. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QAB 1–1 QAR · QAB 1–2 QAR · QAR 2–0 QAB · QAB 0–2 QAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 31 Aug

QABALA

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 2–1

QARABAG

WWDWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	9	+13	18
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Turan	9	+2	15
5	Zira	9	0	15
6	Kapaz	8	0	14
7	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
8	Sumqayıt	8	−1	8
9	Qabala	9	−11	7
10	Imisli FK	8	−6	7
11	Safa Baku	9	−12	3
12	Araz	9	−12	2