Home › Football › Premyer Liqa › Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA

Neftchi Baku v Sabah FA

Neftchi Baku

0–0Full time

Sabah FA

Premyer Liqa · FRI 9 OCT · Palms Sports Arena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:02

Neftchi Baku 0–0 Sabah FA SABAH FA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sabah FA win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Neftchi Baku win34%

Draw23%

Sabah FA win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Palms Sports Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Balayev

3 R. Abbasov

5 Igor Ribeiro

11 A. Skribek

20 Gustavo Klismahn

26 A. Akinyemi

29 L. Tupta

33 Breno Almeida

55 A. Gravillon

77 F. Sacko

88 V. Sevelj

Coach · Yuriy Vernydub

Substitutes

81 · M. Hasanov

93 · R. Cafarov

7 · E. Safarov

8 · E. Mahmudov

10 · F. Vargas

14 · E. Badalov

18 · I. Mathew

22 · D. Jubitana

24 · M. Seck

27 · D. Savic

70 · A. Shtogrin

97 · B. Sambou

Sabah FA

Formation not confirmed

92 S. Pokatilov

5 R. Dashdamirov

6 A. Khaybulaev

21 V. Simic

80 A. Zedadka

27 T. Puchacz

13 I. Lepinjica

37 Du Queiroz

34 X. Severina

18 Carlos Eduardo

4 A. McCarthy

Coach · Valdas Dambrauskas

Substitutes

1 · A. Ramazanov

94 · R. Mirzammadov

17 · T. Mutallimov

10 · A. Isayev

20 · J. Mickels

11 · K. Parris

33 · Junior Almeida

99 · O. Mbina

88 · R. Fernandes

7 · U. Rakhmonaliyev

23 · Y. Lachaab

8 · C. Nwachukwu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Balayev

3 R. Abbasov

5 Igor Ribeiro

11 A. Skribek

20 Gustavo Klismahn

26 A. Akinyemi

29 L. Tupta

33 Breno Almeida

55 A. Gravillon

77 F. Sacko

88 V. Sevelj

Coach · Yuriy Vernydub

Substitutes

81 · M. Hasanov

93 · R. Cafarov

7 · E. Safarov

8 · E. Mahmudov

10 · F. Vargas

14 · E. Badalov

18 · I. Mathew

22 · D. Jubitana

24 · M. Seck

27 · D. Savic

70 · A. Shtogrin

97 · B. Sambou

Sabah FA

Formation not confirmed

92 S. Pokatilov

5 R. Dashdamirov

6 A. Khaybulaev

21 V. Simic

80 A. Zedadka

27 T. Puchacz

13 I. Lepinjica

37 Du Queiroz

34 X. Severina

18 Carlos Eduardo

4 A. McCarthy

Coach · Valdas Dambrauskas

Substitutes

1 · A. Ramazanov

94 · R. Mirzammadov

17 · T. Mutallimov

10 · A. Isayev

20 · J. Mickels

11 · K. Parris

33 · Junior Almeida

99 · O. Mbina

88 · R. Fernandes

7 · U. Rakhmonaliyev

23 · Y. Lachaab

8 · C. Nwachukwu

Our number · sabah fa winPublished 9 Oct 16:36

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Sabah FA a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sabah fa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftchi Baku win	34%	34%	0
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Sabah FA win	42%	38%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Neftchi Baku or draw	58%	62%	−4
Neftchi Baku clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sabah FA clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.8 8.4 6.3 3.4 1 7.5 10.6 8.6 4.6 2 5.0 7.7 6.0 3.2 3 2.3 3.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftchi Baku down, Sabah FA across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 884 Premyer Liqa matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 1.74 goals a meeting; 5 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftchi Baku at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sabah FA away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Neftchi Baku, 1.60 for Sabah FA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.74

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 19

~~Both scored~~7 of 19

~~Last meetings~~SAB 1–2 NEF · SAB 2–0 NEF · NEF 0–0 SAB · SAB 1–0 NEF

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

NEFTCHI BAKU

WWLWWW3–1 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

SABAH FA

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	6	+13	15
2	Sabah FA	5	+13	15
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	6	−1	10
6	Şamaxı FK	6	+2	9
7	Kapaz	5	−3	7
8	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
9	Qabala	6	−5	4
10	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	−4	2
12	Araz	6	−8	2