Kapaz v Zira prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Kapaz 1–1 Zira ZIRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zira win~~54%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zira win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zira was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–26–54
1′KICK-OFF Kapaz v Zira
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Zira win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
40′We said Zira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 19–39–42
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kapaz
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kapaz
45′HALF-TIME Kapaz 0–0 Zira
45′SECOND HALF Kapaz 0–0 Zira
47′We said Zira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zira win 39%)
56′We said Zira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 16–49–34
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Zira win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
58′Kapaz score on 57′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–25–8
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kapaz 1–0 Zira
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Zira win: 54% at kick-off, 8% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Kapaz win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 25%)
59′We said Zira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 67–25–8
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Zira · On: G. Papunashvili · Off: E. Aydin
69′We said Zira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Zira win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kapaz · On: R. Haciyev · Off: Benito
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zira · On: I. Djibrilla · Off: A. Guseynov Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Zira
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kapaz · On: V. Abdullayev · Off: D. Acquah
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kapaz · On: R. Maharramli · Off: V. Stina
90′Zira find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–93–5
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 3–93–5
90′Full time, 1–1. We called Zira at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kapaz 1–1 Zira
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Kapaz win 3%)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kapaz · On: U. Samadov · Off: K. Kalunga
FTFULL TIME Kapaz 1–1 Zira
FTKapaz 1–1 Zira · Zira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kapaz 21%, draw 26%, Zira 54%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Kapaz v ZiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kapaz win21%

Draw26%

Zira win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGanja City Stadium

RefereeE. Aliyev

Line-ups

Kapaz

Zira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kapaz

Zira

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 10 Oct · Premyer Liqa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kapaz

Formation not confirmed

1 Rogerio

34 U. Abbasov

7 N. Alasgarov

8 S. Seyidov

9 K. Kalunga

66 D. Domgjoni

11 V. Stina

33 Benito

14 A. Fofana

4 M. Abuladze

27 D. Acquah

Coach · Azar Mammadov

Substitutes

94 · R. Azizli

81 · E. Bayramov

10 · R. Haciyev

6 · V. Abdullayev

99 · A. Samadov

20 · R. Maharramli

5 · H. Babayev

17 · U. Samadov

19 · F. Kalantarov

2 · A. Atakishiyev

70 · S. Ismayilov

23 · R. Isaqov

Zira

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Bayramov

32 Q. Aliyev

6 H. Hacyly

8 I. Ibrahimli

11 A. Guseynov

4 Ruan Renato

9 D. Volkovi

5 A. Mutsinzi

3 D. Legbo

7 E. Aydin

33 M. Mchakhchekh

Coach · Rashad Sadiqov

Substitutes

72 · H. Quliyev

41 · A. Nazirov

2 · A. Seydiyev

14 · E. Alicanov

48 · R. Muradov

57 · Y. Haciyev

10 · G. Papunashvili

20 · I. Djibrilla

23 · D. Smith

29 · D. Chrismael

Our number · zira winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market51%

Us54%

~~Market~~51%

We make Zira a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kapaz v Zira~~0.81 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~7 v 6

~~The market · Zira win~~51% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kapaz win	21%	21%	0
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Zira win	54%	51%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	42%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Kapaz or draw	46%	49%	−3
Kapaz clean sheet	23%	–	–
Zira clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.2%

0123450 9.9 15.2 11.1 5.6 2.2 1 8.4 11.5 8.8 4.4 2 3.3 4.8 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kapaz down, Zira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 Premyer Liqa matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kapaz at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zira away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Kapaz, 1.50 for Zira. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZIR 2–2 KAP · KAP 0–2 ZIR · ZIR 5–0 KAP · KAP 0–1 ZIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 15 Aug

KAPAZ

LWLWDW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

ZIRA

WWLDLD3–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	+13	17
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Turan	7	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	7	0	8
9	Qabala	8	−12	4
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	8	−11	2