Imisli FK v Turan prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Imisli FK 1–0 Turan TURAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Turan win~~48%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.079

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turan win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Turan was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 23–29–48
1′KICK-OFF Imisli FK v Turan
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Turan
25′Imisli FK find the net on 25′. 0–0 · 22–36–42
26′We said Turan at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 58–27–15
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Imisli FK 1–0 Turan · Diogo Rollo
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Turan win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Imisli FK win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Turan win 15%)
29′We said Turan at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 59–27–14
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Imisli FK
45′HALF-TIME Imisli FK 1–0 Turan
45′SECOND HALF Imisli FK 1–0 Turan
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Turan · On: A. Jankovic · Off: D. Tavares
47′We said Turan at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Turan win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Imisli FK
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Turan
64′We said Turan at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Imisli FK · On: D. Dos Santos · Off: S. Faracov
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Turan · On: Jo Batista · Off: J. Silva
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Turan · On: F. Haciyev · Off: D. Balau
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Turan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Imisli FK · On: J. Hernandez · Off: M. Yaw
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Turan · On: R. Olabe · Off: S. Beusnard
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Turan · On: K. Nacafov · Off: I. Wadji
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Turan at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Imisli FK · On: M. Tahirov · Off: Deco
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Turan
FTFULL TIME Imisli FK 1–0 Turan
FTImisli FK 1–0 Turan · Turan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Turan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Imisli FK 23%, draw 29%, Turan 48%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Imisli FK v TuranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Imisli FK win23%

Draw29%

Turan win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueYevlakh City Stadium

RefereeN. Ismayilli

Line-ups

Imisli FK

Turan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Imisli FK

Turan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premyer Liqa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Turan	7	+3	14
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Imisli FK

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Imanov

13 R. Viegas

23 Diogo Rollo

21 Ronaldo

19 A. Salahly

14 B. Hasanalizada

80 Deco

6 M. Yaw

5 I. Inqilably

77 F. Nabiyev

17 S. Faracov

Coach · Farid Namazov

Substitutes

22 · S. Mammadzada

70 · M. Tahirov

3 · T. Yusifli

30 · K. Mursalli

9 · D. Dos Santos

8 · J. Hernandez

42 · Y. Senin

33 · A. Eyubov

55 · M. Alakbarov

Turan

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Baklov

15 E. Hackman

33 F. Damjanovic

5 R. Miller

7 J. Silva

21 S. Beusnard

23 A. Serrano

3 Henrique Silva

11 D. Balau

8 D. Tavares

77 I. Wadji

Coach · Kurban Berdyev

Substitutes

13 · M. Haciyev

35 · A. Kenyaykin

10 · K. Nacafov

88 · F. Haciyev

17 · R. Sadykhov

90 · Jo Batista

19 · R. Olabe

99 · S. Shafiyev

4 · R. Mammadov

28 · A. Jankovic

Our number · turan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market56%

Us48%

~~Market~~56%

We make Turan a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Imisli FK v Turan~~0.77 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~10 v 4

~~The market · Turan win~~56% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Turan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imisli FK win	23%	17%	+6
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Turan win	48%	56%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	33%	45%	−12
Both teams to score	38%	46%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	15%	25%	−10
Imisli FK or draw	52%	44%	+8
Imisli FK clean sheet	29%	–	–
Turan clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.8%

0123450 13.1 16.8 10.3 4.4 1 10.5 12.2 7.8 3.3 2 4.0 4.9 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imisli FK down, Turan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 Premyer Liqa matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Imisli FK at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Turan away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Imisli FK, 1.26 for Turan. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IMI 1–1 TUR · TUR 0–0 IMI · IMI 0–1 TUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 22 Aug

IMISLI FK

LWLLLL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

TURAN

DLWDWW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	+13	17
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Turan	7	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	7	0	8
9	Qabala	8	−12	4
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	8	−11	2