Imisli FK v Şamaxı FK prediction · Premyer Liqa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Imisli FKDrawŞamaxı FK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Şamaxı FK 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Şamaxı FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Imisli FK 32%, draw 30%, Şamaxı FK 38%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Imisli FK v Şamaxı FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Imisli FK win32%

Draw30%

Şamaxı FK win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueYevlakh City Stadium

RefereeR. Jabarov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Imisli FK

Şamaxı FK

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 16 Oct · Premyer Liqa

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
10	Imisli FK	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şamaxı fk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Şamaxı FK a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Imisli FK v Şamaxı FK~~0.93 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~10 v 7

~~The market · Şamaxı FK win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Şamaxı FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imisli FK win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Şamaxı FK win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Both teams to score	38%	50%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	58%	68%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	14%	24%	−10
Imisli FK or draw	62%	63%	−1
Imisli FK clean sheet	36%	–	–
Şamaxı FK clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 14.1 14.8 7.6 2.7 1 13.2 12.9 6.8 2.4 2 6.0 6.1 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imisli FK down, Şamaxı FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 900 Premyer Liqa matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 0.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Imisli FK at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Şamaxı FK away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Imisli FK, 1.04 for Şamaxı FK. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~0.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAM 0–0 IMI · IMI 0–0 SAM · SAM 1–0 IMI · IMI 0–0 SAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 29 Aug

IMISLI FK

WLLLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–0

ŞAMAXI FK

DWDWDW0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	9	+13	18
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Turan	9	+2	15
5	Zira	9	0	15
6	Kapaz	8	0	14
7	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
8	Sumqayıt	8	−1	8
9	Qabala	9	−11	7
10	Imisli FK	8	−6	7
11	Safa Baku	9	−12	3
12	Araz	9	−12	2