Imisli FK v Qarabag prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag QARABAG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Qarabag win~~70%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.135

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.090

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qarabag win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Qarabag was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 11–19–70
1′KICK-OFF Imisli FK v Qarabag
2′Much as we predicted: Qarabag was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 11–19–70
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Qarabag
45′We said Qarabag at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 12–34–54
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 64% now
45′HALF-TIME Imisli FK 0–0 Qarabag
45′SECOND HALF Imisli FK 0–0 Qarabag
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 54% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 64% now
47′We said Qarabag at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 12–34–54
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 54% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 64% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 54% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Qarabag win: 70% at kick-off, 54% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Imisli FK 0–0 Qarabag
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Imisli FK 0–1 Qarabag
61′⚽ GOAL · 59' Imisli FK 0–1 Qarabag
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qarabag · On: M. Jankovic · Off: J. Montiel
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qarabag · On: Z. Sawo · Off: M. Qurbanly
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qarabag · On: Z. Sawo · Off: M. Qurbanly
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Imisli FK 0–1 Qarabag
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Imisli FK
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Imisli FK 0–1 Qarabag
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag · O. Kashchuk
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Qarabag
FTFULL TIME Imisli FK 0–2 Qarabag
FTImisli FK 0–2 Qarabag · Qarabag win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Imisli FK win11%

Draw18%

Qarabag win70%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueYevlakh City Stadium

RefereeE. Bayramov

Line-ups

Imisli FK

Qarabag

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Imisli FK

Qarabag

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
9	Imisli FK	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Imisli FK

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Imanov

5 I. Inqilably

23 Diogo Rollo

19 A. Salahly

9 D. Dos Santos

6 M. Yaw

77 F. Nabiyev

14 B. Hasanalizada

80 Deco

13 R. Viegas

21 Ronaldo

Coach · Farid Namazov

Substitutes

22 · S. Mammadzada

70 · M. Tahirov

3 · T. Yusifli

42 · Y. Senin

17 · S. Faracov

33 · A. Eyubov

55 · M. Alakbarov

Qarabag

Formation not confirmed

23 M. Zlomislic

21 O. Kashchuk

2 Matheus Silva

22 M. Qurbanly

20 Kady Borges

35 Pedro Bicalho

10 J. Montiel

5 B. Langa

25 C. Makreckis

7 J. Mouaddib

4 B. Varkonyi

Coach · Qurban Qurbanov

Substitutes

1 · S. Mahammadaliyev

55 · B. Huseynov

8 · M. Jankovic

29 · R. Cephas

9 · Z. Sawo

88 · S. Lobato

11 · R. Khadra

Our number · qarabag winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

70% The market72%

Us70%

~~Market~~72%

We make Qarabag a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · qarabag win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Imisli FK win	11%	9%	+2
Draw	18%	18%	0
Qarabag win	70%	72%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	43%	44%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Imisli FK or draw	30%	28%	+2
Imisli FK clean sheet	12%	–	–
Qarabag clean sheet	51%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.3%

0123450 6.1 13.0 13.3 9.4 5.1 2.31 4.5 8.5 9.0 6.3 3.4 2 3.1 3.2 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Imisli FK down, Qarabag across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 888 Premyer Liqa matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Imisli FK at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Qarabag away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.69 goals for Imisli FK, 2.13 for Qarabag. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~QAR 3–0 IMI · IMI 0–1 QAR · QAR 2–0 IMI

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

IMISLI FK

DLWLLL0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–3

QARABAG

WWWWDW4–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	7	−1	11
6	Şamaxı FK	7	+2	10
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	−1	5
9	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
10	Qabala	7	−8	4
11	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
12	Araz	7	−10	2