Araz v Qabala prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Araz 1–2 Qabala ARAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Araz win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.757

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Araz win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Araz 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Araz v Qabala
9′A goal for Qabala on 8′. 0–0 · 43–28–29
9′We said Araz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Araz 0–1 Qabala
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Araz win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Qabala win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Araz win 43%)
30′We said Araz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Araz win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–61
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Qabala
37′Araz score on 36′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–37–26
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Araz 1–1 Qabala
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Araz win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Qabala win 63%)
45′HALF-TIME Araz 1–1 Qabala
45′SECOND HALF Araz 1–1 Qabala
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Araz
49′A goal for Qabala on 48′. 1–1 · 33–43–24
49′We said Araz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Araz 1–2 Qabala
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Araz win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Qabala win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 43%)
50′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–24–67
65′Araz find the net on 64′. 1–2 · 5–21–75
66′We said Araz at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Araz win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Araz · On: U. Isgandarov · Off: Bruno Franco Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Araz · On: O. Buludov · Off: C. Boli
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Qabala
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Araz
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Qabala
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Araz
FTFULL TIME Araz 1–2 Qabala
FTAraz 1–2 Qabala · Araz win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Araz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Araz 44%, draw 26%, Qabala 30%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Araz v QabalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Araz win44%

Draw26%

Qabala win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueShamakhi City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Araz

Qabala

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 17 Oct · Premyer Liqa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Qabala	8	−12	4
12	Araz	8	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · araz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Araz a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Araz v Qabala~~1.41 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~12 v 10

~~The market · Araz win~~36% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Araz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Araz win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Qabala win	30%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	45%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Araz or draw	70%	65%	+5
Araz clean sheet	34%	–	–
Qabala clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.1 9.4 4.9 1 11.9 12.1 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.6 4.7 3 3.8 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Araz down, Qabala across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 896 Premyer Liqa matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Araz at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Qabala away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Araz, 1.10 for Qabala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QAB 1–1 ARA · QAB 2–1 ARA · ARA 2–1 QAB · QAB 2–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 29 Aug

ARAZ

LLDLLL0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

QABALA

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	+13	17
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Turan	8	+2	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	8	−1	12
7	Kapaz	7	−1	11
8	Sumqayıt	7	0	8
9	Imisli FK	8	−6	7
10	Qabala	8	−12	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	8	−11	2