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Araz v Kapaz

Araz

0–2Full time

Kapaz

Premyer Liqa · FRI 9 OCT · Shamakhi City Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

Araz 0–2 Kapaz ARAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Araz win~~50%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.865

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Araz win50%

Draw25%

Kapaz win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Shamakhi City Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Araz

Formation not confirmed

99 T. Ahmadli

17 I. Paro

6 P. Andrade

12 Bruno Franco

29 C. Nuriyev

5 L. Dumancic

11 M. Mara

23 A. Fernandez

27 B. Letic

9 A. Salyanskiy

2 A. Rzayev

Coach · Cavid Huseynov

Substitutes

1 · A. Augusto

14 · U. Iskandarov

26 · O. Buludov

10 · C. Boli

8 · M. Ahmadzada

21 · I. Piriyev

19 · A. Sudi

13 · Q. Alizada

53 · F. Tagiyev

Kapaz

Formation not confirmed

1 Rogerio

3 M. Ba

14 A. Fofana

4 M. Abuladze

34 U. Abbasov

7 N. Alasgarov

9 K. Kalunga

11 V. Stina

27 D. Acquah

33 Benito

66 D. Domgjoni

Coach · Azar Mammadov

Substitutes

81 · E. Bayramov

94 · R. Azizli

17 · U. Samadov

8 · S. Seyidov

19 · F. Kalantarov

2 · A. Atakishiyev

10 · R. Haciyev

6 · V. Abdullayev

20 · R. Maharramli

5 · H. Babayev

70 · S. Ismayilov

23 · R. Isaqov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Araz

Formation not confirmed

99 T. Ahmadli

17 I. Paro

6 P. Andrade

12 Bruno Franco

29 C. Nuriyev

5 L. Dumancic

11 M. Mara

23 A. Fernandez

27 B. Letic

9 A. Salyanskiy

2 A. Rzayev

Coach · Cavid Huseynov

Substitutes

1 · A. Augusto

14 · U. Iskandarov

26 · O. Buludov

10 · C. Boli

8 · M. Ahmadzada

21 · I. Piriyev

19 · A. Sudi

13 · Q. Alizada

53 · F. Tagiyev

Kapaz

Formation not confirmed

1 Rogerio

3 M. Ba

14 A. Fofana

4 M. Abuladze

34 U. Abbasov

7 N. Alasgarov

9 K. Kalunga

11 V. Stina

27 D. Acquah

33 Benito

66 D. Domgjoni

Coach · Azar Mammadov

Substitutes

81 · E. Bayramov

94 · R. Azizli

17 · U. Samadov

8 · S. Seyidov

19 · F. Kalantarov

2 · A. Atakishiyev

10 · R. Haciyev

6 · V. Abdullayev

20 · R. Maharramli

5 · H. Babayev

70 · S. Ismayilov

23 · R. Isaqov

Our number · araz winPublished 9 Oct 13:02

50% The market42%

Us50%

~~Market~~42%

We make Araz a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · araz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Araz win	50%	42%	+8
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Kapaz win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Araz or draw	75%	70%	+5
Araz clean sheet	37%	–	–
Kapaz clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 8.5 4.0 1 12.6 11.6 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 4.7 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Araz down, Kapaz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 884 Premyer Liqa matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.82 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Araz at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kapaz away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Araz, 1.01 for Kapaz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.82

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ARA 2–0 KAP · ARA 2–0 KAP · KAP 0–2 ARA · KAP 0–0 ARA

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

ARAZ

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

KAPAZ

LLWLWD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	6	+13	15
2	Sabah FA	5	+13	15
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	6	−1	10
6	Şamaxı FK	6	+2	9
7	Kapaz	5	−3	7
8	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
9	Qabala	6	−5	4
10	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	−4	2
12	Araz	6	−8	2