Səbail v Zira prediction · Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SəbailDrawZira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zira 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Səbail 18%, draw 28%, Zira 54%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Səbail v ZiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Səbail win18%

Draw28%

Zira win54%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueASCO Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Səbail

Zira

6Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Birinci Dasta

Last match: 23 Oct · Premyer Liqa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zira winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Zira a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Səbail v Zira~~0.70 – 1.43

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Səbail win	18%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Zira win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Səbail or draw	46%	–	–
Səbail clean sheet	24%	–	–
Zira clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.6%

0123450 12.3 16.6 12.1 5.8 2.1 1 8.0 12.3 8.5 4.0 2 2.9 4.2 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Səbail down, Zira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,721 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Səbail play in Birinci Dasta, Zira in Premyer Liqa.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Səbail are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Səbail, 1.43 for Zira. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEB 0–1 ZIR · ZIR 1–0 SEB · SEB 0–1 ZIR · ZIR 4–1 SEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

SƏBAIL

No matches in our record yet.

ZIRA

No matches in our record yet.

Səbail v Zira

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Səbail

Zira

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Cup this season