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Model 1.2

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Kapaz v Baku Sportinq

Kapaz
15:00Upcoming
Baku Sportinq

Cup · WED 28 OCT · Ganja City Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KapazDrawBaku Sportinq
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Kapaz 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kapaz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kapaz 70%, draw 20%, Baku Sportinq 10%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Kapaz v Baku SportinqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kapaz win70%
Draw20%
Baku Sportinq win10%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueGanja City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kapaz

Baku Sportinq

4Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 22 Oct · Birinci Dasta

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kapaz winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off
70% The market–
Us70%

We make Kapaz a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kapaz v Baku Sportinq1.98 – 0.59

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 05:19
Our probability · Kapaz win

Published at 68%, 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kapaz win70%––
Draw20%––
Baku Sportinq win10%––
Over 2.5 goals48%––
Both teams to score39%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Kapaz or draw90%––
Kapaz clean sheet55%––
Baku Sportinq clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.0%
0123450 7.9 4.2 1 14.8 9.2 2.6 2 15.0 8.9 2.6 3 9.9 5.9 4 4.9 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kapaz down, Baku Sportinq across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

KAPAZ

No matches in our record yet.

BAKU SPORTINQ

No matches in our record yet.