Zaqatala v Səbail prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:30

Zaqatala 1–3 Səbail SƏBAIL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Səbail win~~55%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.300

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Səbail win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Səbail was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 20–23–57
1′KICK-OFF Zaqatala v Səbail
13′A goal for Səbail on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–80
13′We published Səbail at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Zaqatala 0–1 Səbail
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Səbail win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
22′Səbail score on 21′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Zaqatala 0–2 Səbail
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Səbail win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
23′We published Səbail at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
25′Səbail find the net on 24′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Zaqatala 0–3 Səbail
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Zaqatala 0–3 Səbail
46′SECOND HALF Zaqatala 0–3 Səbail
47′We published Səbail at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
89′A goal for Zaqatala on 89′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Zaqatala 1–3 Səbail
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Zaqatala 1–3 Səbail
FTZaqatala 1–3 Səbail · Səbail win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Səbail are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zaqatala 20%, draw 24%, Səbail 55%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Zaqatala v SəbailBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Zaqatala win20%

Draw24%

Səbail win55%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zaqatala

Səbail

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · səbail winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 04:34 · locked at kick-off

55% The market77%

Us55%

~~Market~~77%

We make Səbail a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zaqatala v Səbail~~0.93 – 1.77

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~6 v 3

~~The market · Səbail win~~77% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · səbail win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zaqatala win	20%	6%	+14
Draw	24%	17%	+8
Səbail win	55%	77%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	37%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Zaqatala or draw	45%	23%	+22
Zaqatala clean sheet	19%	–	–
Səbail clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.4%

0123450 8.1 11.4 10.1 6.1 2.9 1 6.1 11.3 8.8 5.2 2.4 2 3.2 5.1 4.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zaqatala down, Səbail across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 792 Birinci Dasta matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings since 2021/22, in every competition we cover: 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zaqatala at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Səbail away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Zaqatala, 1.77 for Səbail. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZAQ 0–3 SEB · ZAQ 0–1 SEB · SEB 1–0 ZAQ · ZAQ 1–3 SEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

ZAQATALA

DWLL2–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–6

SƏBAIL

DWWD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	4	+12	12
2	Cəbrayıl	4	+7	12
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4
7	Xankəndi FK	4	−3	2
8	Şimal	4	−4	2
9	Mingəçevir	4	−7	1
10	Baku Sportinq	4	−9	0