Xankəndi FK v Mingəçevir prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 14:31

Xankəndi FK 0–1 Mingəçevir XANKƏNDI FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xankəndi FK win~~45%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.756

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xankəndi FK win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Xankəndi FK v Mingəçevir
2′Much as we predicted: Xankəndi FK was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–30
45′HALF-TIME Xankəndi FK 0–0 Mingəçevir
46′SECOND HALF Xankəndi FK 0–0 Mingəçevir
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Xankəndi FK win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Xankəndi FK win 37%)
53′We said Xankəndi FK at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–44–24
62′We said Xankəndi FK at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
63′Mingəçevir find the net on 63′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–72
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Xankəndi FK 0–1 Mingəçevir
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Xankəndi FK win: 45% at kick-off, 7% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Mingəçevir win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 50%)
64′We said Xankəndi FK at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Xankəndi FK win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Xankəndi FK at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
93′A goal for Mingəçevir on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Xankəndi FK 0–2 Mingəçevir
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Mingəçevir
FTFULL TIME Xankəndi FK 0–1 Mingəçevir
FTXankəndi FK 0–1 Mingəçevir · Xankəndi FK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Xankəndi FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Xankəndi FK 45%, draw 25%, Mingəçevir 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Xankəndi FK v MingəçevirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Xankəndi FK win45%

Draw25%

Mingəçevir win30%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xankəndi FK

Mingəçevir

6Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Birinci Dasta

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Xankəndi FK	5	−2	5
9	Mingəçevir	5	−10	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · xankəndi fk winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

45% The market83%

Us45%

~~Market~~83%

We make Xankəndi FK a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 38 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Xankəndi FK v Mingəçevir~~1.62 – 1.26

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~7 v 9

~~The market · Xankəndi FK win~~83% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Xankəndi FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xankəndi FK win	45%	83%	−38
Draw	25%	12%	+13
Mingəçevir win	30%	5%	+25
Over 2.5 goals	54%	66%	−12
Both teams to score	56%	34%	+22
Over 1.5 goals	77%	85%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	32%	51%	−19
Xankəndi FK or draw	70%	95%	−25
Xankəndi FK clean sheet	30%	–	–
Mingəçevir clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.0 7.0 4.7 2.0 1 8.8 11.6 6.8 2.9 2 7.2 8.5 5.2 2.3 3 3.9 4.6 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xankəndi FK down, Mingəçevir across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 797 Birinci Dasta matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Xankəndi FK at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Mingəçevir away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Xankəndi FK, 1.26 for Mingəçevir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

XANKƏNDI FK

DLLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

MINGƏÇEVIR

DLLLL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	5	+11	12
2	Cəbrayıl	5	+6	12
3	Səbail	5	+4	11
4	MOIK	5	+6	10
5	Karvan	5	+5	10
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	5	−2	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	5	−10	1
10	Baku Sportinq	5	−11	0