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Şimal v Xankəndi FK

Şimal

1–1Full time

Xankəndi FK

Birinci Dasta · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:03

Şimal 1–1 Xankəndi FK XANKƏNDI FK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Xankəndi FK win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Şimal win30%

Draw25%

Xankəndi FK win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · xankəndi fk winPublished 9 Oct 12:32

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Xankəndi FK a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · xankəndi fk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şimal win	30%	26%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Xankəndi FK win	45%	47%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	73%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
Şimal or draw	55%	53%	+1
Şimal clean sheet	21%	–	–
Xankəndi FK clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 8.7 7.3 4.0 1 6.7 11.4 8.6 4.7 2.1 2 4.5 6.8 5.3 2.9 3 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şimal down, Xankəndi FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 789 Birinci Dasta matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Şimal at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Xankəndi FK away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Şimal, 1.64 for Xankəndi FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Birinci Dasta

ŞIMAL

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

XANKƏNDI FK

DLL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	4	+12	12
2	Cəbrayıl	3	+5	9
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	3	+1	4
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4
7	Xankəndi FK	3	−3	1
8	Mingəçevir	3	−4	1
9	Şimal	3	−4	1
10	Baku Sportinq	3	−7	0