Şimal v Baku Sportinq prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 14:30

Şimal 5–2 Baku Sportinq ŞIMAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Şimal win~~37%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Şimal win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Şimal 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Şimal v Baku Sportinq
27′Şimal find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
27′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Şimal 1–0 Baku Sportinq
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Şimal win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–11
40′A goal for Şimal on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Şimal 2–0 Baku Sportinq
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Şimal win: 37% at kick-off, 90% now
41′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Şimal 2–0 Baku Sportinq
46′SECOND HALF Şimal 2–0 Baku Sportinq
50′Baku Sportinq score on 50′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–7
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Şimal 2–1 Baku Sportinq
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Şimal win: 37% at kick-off, 72% now
51′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 2–1 · 72–21–7
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 72–21–7
58′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Şimal win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
71′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–2–0
71′Şimal find the net on 70′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Şimal 3–1 Baku Sportinq
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Şimal win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
78′A goal for Şimal on 78′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Şimal 4–1 Baku Sportinq
79′We said Şimal at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
84′Baku Sportinq score on 84′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Şimal 4–2 Baku Sportinq
85′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
94′Şimal find the net on 90′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Şimal 5–2 Baku Sportinq
95′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Şimal 5–2 Baku Sportinq
FTŞimal 5–2 Baku Sportinq · Şimal win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Şimal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Şimal 37%, draw 27%, Baku Sportinq 36%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Şimal v Baku SportinqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Şimal win37%

Draw27%

Baku Sportinq win36%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Şimal

Baku Sportinq

7Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Birinci Dasta

Last match: 16 Oct · Birinci Dasta

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
10	Baku Sportinq	5	−11	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şimal winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

37% The market54%

Us37%

~~Market~~54%

We make Şimal a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Şimal v Baku Sportinq~~1.33 – 1.30

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 0~~6 v 10

~~The market · Şimal win~~54% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Şimal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şimal win	37%	54%	−17
Draw	27%	27%	0
Baku Sportinq win	36%	20%	+16
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Şimal or draw	64%	80%	−16
Şimal clean sheet	28%	–	–
Baku Sportinq clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.2 9.2 6.2 2.8 1 9.3 12.3 7.7 3.4 2 6.3 7.7 5.0 2.2 3 2.9 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şimal down, Baku Sportinq across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 799 Birinci Dasta matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Şimal at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Baku Sportinq away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Şimal, 1.30 for Baku Sportinq. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SIM 1–0 BAK · SIM 0–1 BAK · BAK 4–1 SIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

ŞIMAL

LDLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 4–1

BAKU SPORTINQ

LLLLL0–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	6	+12	15
2	Cəbrayıl	5	+6	12
3	Səbail	6	+3	11
4	MOIK	5	+6	10
5	Karvan	5	+5	10
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	6	−3	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	6	−9	4
10	Baku Sportinq	5	−11	0