Şahdağ v Səbail prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 14:31

Şahdağ 1–0 Səbail ŞAHDAĞ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Şahdağ win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.554

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Şahdağ win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Şahdağ was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Şahdağ v Səbail
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Şahdağ win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Şahdağ 0–0 Səbail
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Şahdağ win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
46′SECOND HALF Şahdağ 0–0 Səbail
49′Şahdağ score on 49′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Şahdağ 1–0 Səbail
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Şahdağ win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Şahdağ win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 46%)
50′We published Şahdağ at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
55′50′: A. Nasibov on the scoresheet for Şahdağ, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
59′We published Şahdağ at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Şahdağ win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
69′🟥 RED CARD · 69' Səbail
70′A red card for Səbail on 69′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 84–14–2
72′We published Şahdağ at 41%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' P. Azadov · Səbail
79′We published Şahdağ at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Şahdağ win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We published Şahdağ at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Şahdağ 1–0 Səbail
FTŞahdağ 1–0 Səbail · Şahdağ win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Şahdağ are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Şahdağ 41%, draw 30%, Səbail 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Şahdağ v SəbailBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Şahdağ win41%

Draw30%

Səbail win29%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Şahdağ

Səbail

6Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Birinci Dasta

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · şahdağ winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Şahdağ a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Şahdağ v Səbail~~1.24 – 1.00

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~1 v 3

~~The market · Şahdağ win~~39% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Şahdağ win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Şahdağ win	41%	39%	+2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Səbail win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Şahdağ or draw	71%	68%	+3
Şahdağ clean sheet	38%	–	–
Səbail clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 12.1 10.2 5.4 1 12.6 13.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.0 7.7 3.9 3 3.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Şahdağ down, Səbail across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 797 Birinci Dasta matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Şahdağ at home: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Səbail away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Şahdağ, 1.00 for Səbail. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SEB 0–0 SAH · SAH 2–2 SEB · SEB 2–0 SAH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

ŞAHDAĞ

WWWWL1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 6–0 · 0–1

SƏBAIL

DWWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	5	+11	12
2	Cəbrayıl	5	+6	12
3	Səbail	5	+4	11
4	MOIK	5	+6	10
5	Karvan	5	+5	10
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	5	−2	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	5	−10	1
10	Baku Sportinq	5	−11	0