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MOIK v Mingəçevir

MOIK

3–0Full time

Mingəçevir

Birinci Dasta · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:03

MOIK 3–0 Mingəçevir MINGƏÇEVIR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mingəçevir win~~38%

~~The market said~~25%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.628

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

MOIK win36%

Draw26%

Mingəçevir win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mingəçevir winPublished 9 Oct 12:32

38% The market25%

Us38%

~~Market~~25%

We make Mingəçevir a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mingəçevir win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 25% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MOIK win	36%	49%	−13
Draw	26%	26%	0
Mingəçevir win	38%	25%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
MOIK or draw	62%	75%	−13
MOIK clean sheet	25%	–	–
Mingəçevir clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.4 8.4 6.2 3.0 1 8.1 12.0 7.9 3.8 2 5.8 7.7 5.3 2.6 3 2.7 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MOIK down, Mingəçevir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 789 Birinci Dasta matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.91 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MOIK at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mingəçevir away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for MOIK, 1.43 for Mingəçevir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.91

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~MIN 3–1 MOI · MIN 2–0 MOI · MOI 0–3 MIN · MOI 1–3 MIN

Form · last six in Birinci Dasta

MOIK

DLWLDW1–1 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

MINGƏÇEVIR

LWWDLL0–2 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	4	+12	12
2	Cəbrayıl	3	+5	9
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	3	+1	4
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4
7	Xankəndi FK	3	−3	1
8	Mingəçevir	3	−4	1
9	Şimal	3	−4	1
10	Baku Sportinq	3	−7	0