MOIK v Karvan

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Karvan win at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Karvan 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
3. 1′KICK-OFF MOIK v Karvan
4. 3′A goal for Karvan on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–18–66
5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' MOIK 0–1 Karvan
6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
7. 4′We said Karvan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 16–18–66
8. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–69
9. 38′We said Karvan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
10. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
11. 45′HALF-TIME MOIK 0–1 Karvan
12. 45′SECOND HALF MOIK 0–1 Karvan
13. 58′We said Karvan at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
14. 63′MOIK score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–50–27
15. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' MOIK 1–1 Karvan
16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 27% now
17. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Karvan win 77%)
18. 64′We said Karvan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 23–51–26
19. 68′We said Karvan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 21–55–24
20. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
21. 73′We said Karvan at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
22. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' MOIK 2–1 Karvan
23. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
24. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' MOIK win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 62%)
25. 74′MOIK find the net on 73′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
26. 75′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–2
27. 76′MOIK ahead on 74′ through E. Tagiyev. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–2
28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Karvan win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
29. 82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
30. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' MOIK 3–1 Karvan
31. 83′A goal for MOIK on 82′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
32. 90′3–1 at the end. Our 41% on Karvan misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
33. FTFULL TIME MOIK 3–1 Karvan
34. FTMOIK 3–1 Karvan · Karvan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.