Mingəçevir v Şimal prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:30

Mingəçevir 1–4 Şimal MINGƏÇEVIR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mingəçevir win~~69%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.253

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mingəçevir win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mingəçevir 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′KICK-OFF Mingəçevir v Şimal
37′Şimal find the net on 37′. 0–1. 0–1 · 31–28–41
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Mingəçevir 0–1 Şimal
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 31% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Şimal win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Mingəçevir win 31%)
38′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–28–41
40′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 29% now
45′HALF-TIME Mingəçevir 0–2 Şimal
46′SECOND HALF Mingəçevir 0–2 Şimal
48′A goal for Şimal on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–16–76
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Mingəçevir 0–2 Şimal
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 8% now
49′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–16–77
50′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–2 · 7–15–77
55′Mingəçevir score on 54′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 19–30–51
55′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–30–51
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Mingəçevir 1–2 Şimal
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 19% now
57′48′: N. Sixamirov on the scoresheet for Mingəçevir, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 18–30–52
62′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–30–56
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Mingəçevir win: 69% at kick-off, 9% now
78′We said Mingəçevir at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
94′Şimal find the net on 90′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Mingəçevir 1–3 Şimal
95′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
96′Şimal ahead on 87′ through G. Mehraliyev. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
101′A goal for Şimal on 90′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
101′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Mingəçevir 1–4 Şimal
FTFULL TIME Mingəçevir 1–4 Şimal
FTMingəçevir 1–4 Şimal · Mingəçevir win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mingəçevir are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mingəçevir 69%, draw 18%, Şimal 13%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Mingəçevir v ŞimalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Mingəçevir win69%

Draw18%

Şimal win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mingəçevir

Şimal

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Şimal	4	−4	2
9	Mingəçevir	4	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mingəçevir winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 04:34 · locked at kick-off

69% The market27%

Us69%

~~Market~~27%

We make Mingəçevir a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 42 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mingəçevir v Şimal~~2.49 – 0.97

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 2~~9 v 8

~~The market · Mingəçevir win~~27% · ours 69%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mingəçevir win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mingəçevir win	69%	27%	+42
Draw	18%	26%	−7
Şimal win	13%	48%	−34
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	44%	38%	+7
Mingəçevir or draw	87%	52%	+34
Mingəçevir clean sheet	39%	–	–
Şimal clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.6%

0123450 4.3 3.0 1 7.9 8.2 3.7 2 9.6 8.8 4.3 3 7.6 7.0 3.4 4 4.8 4.4 2.1 5 2.6 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Mingəçevir down, Şimal across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 792 Birinci Dasta matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings since 2025/26, in every competition we cover: 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mingəçevir at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Şimal away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Mingəçevir, 0.97 for Şimal. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SIM 0–3 MIN · SIM 0–3 MIN · MIN 3–1 SIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 4 Sept

MINGƏÇEVIR

DLLL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3

ŞIMAL

LDLD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	4	+12	12
2	Cəbrayıl	4	+7	12
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4
7	Xankəndi FK	4	−3	2
8	Şimal	4	−4	2
9	Mingəçevir	4	−7	1
10	Baku Sportinq	4	−9	0