Karvan v Cəbrayıl prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Karvan 2–1 Cəbrayıl KARVAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Karvan win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.193

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karvan win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karvan 64% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–16
1′KICK-OFF Karvan v Cəbrayıl
4′A goal for Karvan on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–10–6
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Karvan 1–0 Cəbrayıl
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Karvan win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
5′We said Karvan at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
32′Karvan score on 32′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Karvan 2–0 Cəbrayıl
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Karvan win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
33′We said Karvan at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Karvan 2–0 Cəbrayıl
46′SECOND HALF Karvan 2–0 Cəbrayıl
81′We said Karvan at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′Cəbrayıl find the net on 88′. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Karvan 2–1 Cəbrayıl
FTFULL TIME Karvan 2–1 Cəbrayıl
FTKarvan 2–1 Cəbrayıl · Karvan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karvan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karvan 64%, draw 19%, Cəbrayıl 17%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Karvan v CəbrayılBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Karvan win64%

Draw19%

Cəbrayıl win17%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueYevlakh City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karvan

Cəbrayıl

8Days since last match6

Last match: 8 Oct · Birinci Dasta

Last match: 10 Oct · Birinci Dasta

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cəbrayıl	4	+7	12
4	Karvan	4	+4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karvan winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Karvan a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karvan v Cəbrayıl~~2.55 – 1.17

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karvan win

Published at 66%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karvan win	64%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Cəbrayıl win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Karvan or draw	83%	–	–
Karvan clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cəbrayıl clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.7 3.2 2.1 1 6.6 8.1 4.4 2 7.8 8.5 4.9 3 6.1 6.6 3.8 4 3.9 4.1 2.4 5 2.2 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Karvan down, Cəbrayıl across0–5 goals a side shown (92.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 795 Birinci Dasta matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karvan at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cəbrayıl away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Karvan, 1.17 for Cəbrayıl. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAR 2–0 CEB · CEB 1–1 KAR · KAR 1–2 CEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

KARVAN

WLWD3–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

CƏBRAYIL

WWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	5	+11	12
2	Cəbrayıl	4	+7	12
3	Səbail	5	+4	11
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	5	−2	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	5	−10	1
10	Baku Sportinq	4	−9	0