Cəbrayıl v Zaqatala prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 14:30

Cəbrayıl 7–0 Zaqatala CƏBRAYIL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cəbrayıl win~~57%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.105

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cəbrayıl win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cəbrayıl 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF Cəbrayıl v Zaqatala
17′Cəbrayıl score on 17′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Cəbrayıl 1–0 Zaqatala
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Cəbrayıl win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
18′We said Cəbrayıl at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
38′Cəbrayıl find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Cəbrayıl 2–0 Zaqatala
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cəbrayıl win: 57% at kick-off, 94% now
39′We said Cəbrayıl at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′We said Cəbrayıl at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′A goal for Cəbrayıl on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cəbrayıl 3–0 Zaqatala
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cəbrayıl win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Cəbrayıl 3–0 Zaqatala
46′SECOND HALF Cəbrayıl 3–0 Zaqatala
53′Cəbrayıl score on 52′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
53′We said Cəbrayıl at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Cəbrayıl 4–0 Zaqatala
55′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
56′53′: D. Achimi on the scoresheet for Cəbrayıl, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′Cəbrayıl find the net on 66′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Cəbrayıl 5–0 Zaqatala
68′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
70′Cəbrayıl ahead on 67′ through R. Tahirov. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
83′A goal for Cəbrayıl on 83′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
83′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Cəbrayıl 6–0 Zaqatala
84′Cəbrayıl score on 84′ to make it 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cəbrayıl 7–0 Zaqatala
85′7 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cəbrayıl 7–0 Zaqatala
FTCəbrayıl 7–0 Zaqatala · Cəbrayıl win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cəbrayıl are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cəbrayıl 57%, draw 21%, Zaqatala 22%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Cəbrayıl v ZaqatalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Cəbrayıl win57%

Draw21%

Zaqatala win22%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cəbrayıl

Zaqatala

6Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Birinci Dasta

Last match: 15 Oct · Birinci Dasta

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cəbrayıl	5	+6	12
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cəbrayıl winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

57% The market74%

Us57%

~~Market~~74%

We make Cəbrayıl a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cəbrayıl v Zaqatala~~2.20 – 1.22

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~2 v 8

~~The market · Cəbrayıl win~~74% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cəbrayıl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cəbrayıl win	57%	74%	−17
Draw	21%	17%	+4
Zaqatala win	22%	9%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	46%	+14
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Cəbrayıl or draw	78%	91%	−13
Cəbrayıl clean sheet	31%	–	–
Zaqatala clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.4 4.4 2.9 1 7.3 9.2 5.4 2.3 2 7.6 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 5.4 6.1 3.7 4 3.1 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cəbrayıl down, Zaqatala across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 799 Birinci Dasta matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cəbrayıl at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zaqatala away: 0.67 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Cəbrayıl, 1.22 for Zaqatala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CEB 3–2 ZAQ · CEB 1–0 ZAQ · ZAQ 1–0 CEB · CEB 1–0 ZAQ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 4 Sept

CƏBRAYIL

WWWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

ZAQATALA

DWLLL2–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	6	+12	15
2	Cəbrayıl	5	+6	12
3	Səbail	6	+3	11
4	MOIK	5	+6	10
5	Karvan	5	+5	10
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	6	−3	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	6	−9	4
10	Baku Sportinq	5	−11	0