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Cəbrayıl v Baku Sportinq

Cəbrayıl

2–0Full time

Baku Sportinq

Birinci Dasta · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Cəbrayıl 2–0 Baku Sportinq CƏBRAYIL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cəbrayıl win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cəbrayıl win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Cəbrayıl 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
2′KICK-OFF Cəbrayıl v Baku Sportinq
45′HALF-TIME Cəbrayıl 0–0 Baku Sportinq
46′SECOND HALF Cəbrayıl 0–0 Baku Sportinq
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cəbrayıl 1–0 Baku Sportinq
65′A goal for Cəbrayıl on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Cəbrayıl win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
85′We said Cəbrayıl at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Cəbrayıl win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Cəbrayıl 2–0 Baku Sportinq
FTFULL TIME Cəbrayıl 2–0 Baku Sportinq
FTCəbrayıl 2–0 Baku Sportinq · Cəbrayıl win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cəbrayıl win43%

Draw26%

Baku Sportinq win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cəbrayıl winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Cəbrayıl a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cəbrayıl win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Baku Sportinq win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Cəbrayıl or draw	70%	–	–
Cəbrayıl clean sheet	31%	–	–
Baku Sportinq clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.8 7.6 4.9 2.1 1 9.4 12.1 6.9 2.9 2 7.3 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.8 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cəbrayıl down, Baku Sportinq across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 791 Birinci Dasta matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cəbrayıl at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Baku Sportinq away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Cəbrayıl, 1.22 for Baku Sportinq. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CBR 2–3 BAK · CBR 1–2 BAK · BAK 2–0 CBR · CBR 2–1 BAK

Form · last six in Birinci Dasta

CƏBRAYIL

LLLWWW2–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

BAKU SPORTINQ

WWDLLL3–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	4	+12	12
2	Cəbrayıl	3	+5	9
3	Səbail	4	+2	8
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
6	Zaqatala	4	−6	4
7	Xankəndi FK	4	−3	2
8	Şimal	4	−4	2
9	Mingəçevir	4	−7	1
10	Baku Sportinq	3	−7	0