Baku Sportinq v MOIK prediction · Birinci Dasta

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Baku Sportinq 1–3 MOIK BAKU SPORTINQ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baku Sportinq win~~37%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Baku Sportinq win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Baku Sportinq was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Baku Sportinq v MOIK
25′Baku Sportinq find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Baku Sportinq 1–0 MOIK
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Baku Sportinq win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
26′We published Baku Sportinq at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
27′We published Baku Sportinq at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
37′A goal for MOIK on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–40–29
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Baku Sportinq 1–1 MOIK
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Baku Sportinq win: 37% at kick-off, 32% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Baku Sportinq win 32%)
43′MOIK score on 43′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–70
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Baku Sportinq 1–2 MOIK
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Baku Sportinq win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' MOIK win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
44′We said Baku Sportinq at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–22–70
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–22–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Baku Sportinq win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
45′HALF-TIME Baku Sportinq 1–2 MOIK
46′SECOND HALF Baku Sportinq 1–2 MOIK
60′We said Baku Sportinq at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
94′MOIK find the net on 90′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Baku Sportinq 1–3 MOIK
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Baku Sportinq 1–3 MOIK
FTBaku Sportinq 1–3 MOIK · Baku Sportinq win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Baku Sportinq just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Baku Sportinq 37%, draw 30%, MOIK 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Baku Sportinq v MOIKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Baku Sportinq win37%

Draw30%

MOIK win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baku Sportinq

MOIK

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Birinci Dasta

Last match: 9 Oct · Birinci Dasta

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
10	Baku Sportinq	4	−9	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baku sportinq winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off

37% The market28%

Us37%

~~Market~~28%

We make Baku Sportinq a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baku Sportinq v MOIK~~1.17 – 1.08

~~Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 7~~10 v 5

~~The market · Baku Sportinq win~~28% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Baku Sportinq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baku Sportinq win	37%	28%	+9
Draw	30%	27%	+3
MOIK win	33%	45%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	39%	48%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Baku Sportinq or draw	67%	55%	+12
Baku Sportinq clean sheet	35%	–	–
MOIK clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 12.0 10.9 6.2 2.3 1 11.7 13.2 6.8 2.5 2 7.1 7.3 3.9 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baku Sportinq down, MOIK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 795 Birinci Dasta matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Birinci Dasta matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baku Sportinq at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). MOIK away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Baku Sportinq, 1.08 for MOIK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAK 3–1 MOI · BAK 2–0 MOI · MOI 0–0 BAK · BAK 0–0 MOI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Birinci Dasta this season · since 3 Sept

BAKU SPORTINQ

LLLL0–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

MOIK

LDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Şahdağ	5	+11	12
2	Cəbrayıl	4	+7	12
3	Səbail	5	+4	11
4	Karvan	4	+4	7
5	MOIK	4	+4	7
6	Şimal	5	−1	5
7	Xankəndi FK	5	−2	5
8	Zaqatala	5	−8	4
9	Mingəçevir	5	−10	1
10	Baku Sportinq	4	−9	0