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Wolfurt v Schwaz

Wolfurt
2–5Full time
Schwaz

Regionalliga - West · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Wolfurt 2–5 Schwaz SCHWAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Schwaz win55%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.304
The market’s Brier score0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Schwaz win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Schwaz 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 26–20–55
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wolfurt v Schwaz
  4. 10′We said Schwaz at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–0 · 46–21–33
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Wolfurt 1–0 Schwaz
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 33% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Wolfurt win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Schwaz win 33%)
  8. 22′We said Schwaz at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 49–22–29
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 50–23–27
  10. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  11. 36′We said Schwaz at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–24–24
  12. 36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Wolfurt
  13. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
  14. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Schwaz win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Wolfurt win 25%)
  15. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Wolfurt 1–0 Schwaz
  16. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 24% now
  17. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Wolfurt win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Schwaz win 24%)
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Wolfurt 1–0 Schwaz
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Wolfurt 1–0 Schwaz
  20. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Wolfurt 1–1 Schwaz
  21. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  22. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Schwaz win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Wolfurt win 24%)
  23. 51′We said Schwaz at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 24–33–43
  24. 57′We said Schwaz at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–2 · 6–17–77
  25. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Wolfurt 1–2 Schwaz
  26. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  27. 59′We said Schwaz at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  28. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Wolfurt 1–3 Schwaz
  29. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  30. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  31. 68′Goalless on 68′ when we expected about 4.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 20–47–33
  32. 71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Wolfurt
  33. 71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Schwaz
  34. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 31% now
  35. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Schwaz win 31%)
  36. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Wolfurt 1–3 Schwaz
  37. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
  38. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Schwaz win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 2%)
  39. 76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Wolfurt
  40. 76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Schwaz
  41. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  42. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Schwaz win 25%)
  43. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Wolfurt 1–3 Schwaz
  44. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Schwaz win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
  45. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Schwaz win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  46. 84′We said Schwaz at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  47. 86′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  48. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Wolfurt 1–4 Schwaz
  49. 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  50. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Wolfurt 2–4 Schwaz
  51. 90′We said Schwaz at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 5–88–7 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  52. 94′7 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  53. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Wolfurt 2–5 Schwaz
  54. FTFULL TIME Wolfurt 2–5 Schwaz
  55. FTWolfurt 2–5 Schwaz · Schwaz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schwaz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wolfurt 25%, draw 19%, Schwaz 55%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Wolfurt v SchwazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wolfurt win25%
Draw19%
Schwaz win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wolfurt

Schwaz

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Schwaz11+825
16Wolfurt11−194

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schwaz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market62%
Us55%
Market62%

We make Schwaz a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wolfurt v Schwaz1.56 – 2.40
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 SeptW0 D0 L6 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 4 v 2516 v 3
The market · Schwaz win62% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 13:42
Our probability · Schwaz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wolfurt win25%19%+6
Draw19%19%0
Schwaz win55%62%−7
Over 2.5 goals74%69%+5
Both teams to score70%63%+7
Over 1.5 goals90%85%+5
Over 3.5 goals55%49%+6
Wolfurt or draw45%38%+7
Wolfurt clean sheet10%––
Schwaz clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%
0123450 2.4 4.5 5.4 4.3 2.7 1 3.1 7.4 8.1 6.3 3.9 2.02 2.6 5.6 6.3 4.8 2.9 3 3.0 3.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wolfurt down, Schwaz across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsSCH 4–0 WOL · WOL 0–2 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

WOLFURT

LLLLLL0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 2–4

SCHWAZ

LWWWWW1–3 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hohenems11+1727
2Imst11+1525
3Schwaz11+825
4Dornbirn12+1424
5Kitzbühel12+922
6Röthis12+321
7Swarovski Tirol II12+1420
8SK St. Johann11+618
9Fügen12−616
10SVG Reichenau11−612
11Kufstein12−111
12Lochau12−1311
13Lauterach11−79
14Lustenau12−207
15Rheindorf Altach II11−146
16Wolfurt11−194

The competition's standings before kick-off.