Swarovski Tirol II v Kitzbühel prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Swarovski Tirol II 2–2 Kitzbühel SWAROVSKI TIROL II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Swarovski Tirol II win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.960

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Swarovski Tirol II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swarovski Tirol II 52%, draw 21%, Kitzbühel 26%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Swarovski Tirol II v KitzbühelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Swarovski Tirol II win52%

Draw21%

Kitzbühel win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:30

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swarovski Tirol II

Kitzbühel

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kitzbühel	11	+9	21
7	Swarovski Tirol II	11	+14	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · swarovski tirol ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Swarovski Tirol II a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swarovski Tirol II v Kitzbühel~~2.09 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swarovski Tirol II win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Kitzbühel win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II or draw	74%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Kitzbühel clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.5 4.1 3.1 1 6.1 9.1 6.2 3.0 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.5 6.2 4.4 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swarovski Tirol II down, Kitzbühel across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Regionalliga - West matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.6% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Swarovski Tirol II at home: 3.40 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Kitzbühel away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Swarovski Tirol II, 1.42 for Kitzbühel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KIT 2–1 SWA · SWA 3–0 KIT · SWA 3–0 KIT · KIT 0–0 SWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

SWAROVSKI TIROL II

WWWWWL3–2 · 3–1 · 6–0 · 4–3 · 6–1 · 3–4

KITZBÜHEL

WLWWWL3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	11	+17	27
2	Imst	11	+15	25
3	Schwaz	11	+8	25
4	Dornbirn	12	+14	24
5	Kitzbühel	11	+9	21
6	Röthis	12	+3	21
7	Swarovski Tirol II	11	+14	19
8	SK St. Johann	11	+6	18
9	Fügen	12	−6	16
10	SVG Reichenau	11	−6	12
11	Kufstein	12	−1	11
12	Lochau	12	−13	11
13	Lauterach	11	−7	9
14	Lustenau	12	−20	7
15	Rheindorf Altach II	11	−14	6
16	Wolfurt	11	−19	4