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Schwaz v Swarovski Tirol II

Schwaz

4–3Full time

Swarovski Tirol II

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Schwaz 4–3 Swarovski Tirol II SCHWAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schwaz win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Schwaz win45%

Draw22%

Swarovski Tirol II win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schwaz winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Schwaz a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwaz win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Schwaz or draw	67%	–	–
Schwaz clean sheet	19%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 4.3 3.7 2.1 1 5.1 8.7 7.0 3.9 2 5.1 8.2 6.8 3.8 3 3.4 5.4 4.5 2.5 4 2.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwaz down, Swarovski Tirol II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Schwaz at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Swarovski Tirol II away: 1.60 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Schwaz, 1.68 for Swarovski Tirol II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

SCHWAZ

WLWWWW3–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

SWAROVSKI TIROL II

LWWWWW1–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 6–0 · 4–3 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	10	+18	27
2	Imst	10	+10	22
3	Schwaz	10	+7	22
4	Kitzbühel	10	+11	21
5	Dornbirn	10	+13	20
6	SK St. Johann	10	+7	18
7	Swarovski Tirol II	10	+10	16
8	Röthis	10	+1	15
9	Fügen	10	−6	13
10	SVG Reichenau	10	−8	9
11	Lochau	10	−13	8
12	Kufstein	10	−5	7
13	Wolfurt	10	−12	7
14	Lustenau	10	−14	7
15	Lauterach	10	−9	6
16	Rheindorf Altach II	10	−10	6