Schwaz v SK St. Johann prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Schwaz 3–1 SK St. Johann SCHWAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schwaz win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Schwaz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schwaz 53%, draw 22%, SK St. Johann 25%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Schwaz v SK St. JohannBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Schwaz win53%

Draw22%

SK St. Johann win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schwaz

SK St. Johann

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Schwaz	12	+11	28
8	SK St. Johann	12	+4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schwaz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Schwaz a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schwaz v SK St. Johann~~2.07 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 18~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Schwaz win

Published at 49%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwaz win	53%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
SK St. Johann win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Schwaz or draw	75%	–	–
Schwaz clean sheet	26%	–	–
SK St. Johann clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.9 4.3 3.1 1 6.7 9.4 6.1 2.8 2 7.0 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.8 6.2 4.2 4 2.5 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwaz down, SK St. Johann across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,089 Regionalliga - West matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Schwaz at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SK St. Johann away: 1.00 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Schwaz, 1.35 for SK St. Johann. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept

SCHWAZ

WWWWWW2–1 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 5–2

SK ST. JOHANN

DWDWLL0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Imst	12	+17	28
2	Schwaz	12	+11	28
3	Hohenems	12	+14	27
4	Dornbirn	12	+14	24
5	Kitzbühel	12	+9	22
6	Röthis	12	+3	21
7	Swarovski Tirol II	12	+14	20
8	SK St. Johann	12	+4	18
9	Fügen	12	−6	16
10	SVG Reichenau	12	−3	15
11	Lauterach	12	−5	12
12	Kufstein	12	−1	11
13	Lochau	12	−13	11
14	Lustenau	12	−20	7
15	Rheindorf Altach II	12	−16	6
16	Wolfurt	12	−22	4