Lustenau v Fügen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Lustenau 3–4 Fügen LUSTENAU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lustenau win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lustenau are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lustenau 44%, draw 20%, Fügen 37%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Lustenau v FügenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lustenau win44%

Draw20%

Fügen win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:45

RoundWest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lustenau

Fügen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fügen	11	−7	13
14	Lustenau	11	−19	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lustenau winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Lustenau a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–2.1, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lustenau v Fügen~~2.31 – 2.10

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lustenau win	44%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Fügen win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Lustenau or draw	63%	–	–
Lustenau clean sheet	13%	–	–
Fügen clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.8%

0123450 2.6 2.8 1 2.8 6.1 6.1 4.2 2.3 2 3.3 6.7 6.8 4.7 2.5 3 2.6 5.1 5.2 3.6 4 3.0 3.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lustenau down, Fügen across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,081 Regionalliga - West matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Lustenau at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fügen away: 1.20 scored, 3.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Lustenau, 2.10 for Fügen. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 5 Sept

LUSTENAU

DLWDDL0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–7

FÜGEN

LDLWLL0–4 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 6–1 · 1–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	11	+17	27
2	Imst	11	+15	25
3	Schwaz	11	+8	25
4	Dornbirn	11	+14	23
5	Kitzbühel	11	+9	21
6	Swarovski Tirol II	11	+14	19
7	SK St. Johann	11	+6	18
8	Röthis	11	+2	18
9	Fügen	11	−7	13
10	SVG Reichenau	11	−6	12
11	Lochau	11	−12	11
12	Kufstein	11	−1	10
13	Lauterach	11	−7	9
14	Lustenau	11	−19	7
15	Rheindorf Altach II	11	−14	6
16	Wolfurt	11	−19	4