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Lauterach v Wolfurt

Lauterach

4–2Full time

Wolfurt

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Lauterach 4–2 Wolfurt LAUTERACH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lauterach win~~57%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.277

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.322

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lauterach win at 57%.
16′Little has changed for our model: Lauterach 57% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–24
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lauterach 1–1 Wolfurt
37′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–1 · 50–26–24
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lauterach 1–1 Wolfurt
45′HALF-TIME Lauterach 1–1 Wolfurt
46′SECOND HALF Lauterach 1–1 Wolfurt
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Lauterach 4–2 Wolfurt
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Lauterach 2–1 Wolfurt
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Lauterach 2–1 Wolfurt
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Lauterach 2–1 Wolfurt
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lauterach 2–1 Wolfurt
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Lauterach 3–1 Wolfurt
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Lauterach 3–1 Wolfurt
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Lauterach 4–1 Wolfurt
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Lauterach 4–1 Wolfurt
FTFULL TIME Lauterach 4–2 Wolfurt
FTLauterach 4–2 Wolfurt · Lauterach win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lauterach win57%

Draw19%

Wolfurt win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lauterach winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

57% The market54%

Us57%

~~Market~~54%

We make Lauterach a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lauterach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lauterach win	57%	54%	+3
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Wolfurt win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Both teams to score	72%	70%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	59%	54%	+5
Lauterach or draw	76%	75%	+1
Lauterach clean sheet	21%	–	–
Wolfurt clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.6 2.2 1 4.1 6.7 5.2 2.8 2 5.1 7.9 6.3 3.4 3 4.3 6.5 5.2 2.8 4 2.7 4.2 3.3 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Lauterach down, Wolfurt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lauterach at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wolfurt away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Lauterach, 1.61 for Wolfurt. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WOL 0–2 LAU · LAU 3–2 WOL · LAU 5–0 WOL · WOL 3–0 LAU

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

LAUTERACH

LDDLWL1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–6

WOLFURT

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–6 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	10	+18	27
2	Imst	10	+10	22
3	Schwaz	10	+7	22
4	Kitzbühel	10	+11	21
5	Dornbirn	10	+13	20
6	SK St. Johann	10	+7	18
7	Swarovski Tirol II	10	+10	16
8	Röthis	10	+1	15
9	Fügen	10	−6	13
10	SVG Reichenau	10	−8	9
11	Lochau	10	−13	8
12	Kufstein	10	−5	7
13	Wolfurt	10	−12	7
14	Lustenau	10	−14	7
15	Lauterach	10	−9	6
16	Rheindorf Altach II	10	−10	6