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Model 1.2

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Kufstein v SVG Reichenau

Kufstein
3–1Full time
SVG Reichenau

Regionalliga - West · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Kufstein 3–1 SVG Reichenau KUFSTEIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kufstein win37%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.593
The market’s Brier score0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kufstein win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kufstein 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kufstein v SVG Reichenau
  4. 28′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kufstein 1–0 SVG Reichenau
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–11
  8. 38′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Kufstein 1–0 SVG Reichenau
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Kufstein 1–0 SVG Reichenau
  11. 57′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  12. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  13. 61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Kufstein
  14. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 24% now
  15. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Kufstein win 77%)
  16. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Kufstein 1–0 SVG Reichenau
  17. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Kufstein win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 52%)
  18. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kufstein 1–1 SVG Reichenau
  19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 24% now
  20. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Kufstein win 77%)
  21. 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  22. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kufstein 2–1 SVG Reichenau
  23. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 79% now
  24. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Kufstein win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 57%)
  25. 68′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  26. 75′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  27. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  28. 81′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  29. 88′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  30. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Kufstein
  31. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' SVG Reichenau
  32. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
  33. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Kufstein win 95%)
  34. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kufstein 2–1 SVG Reichenau
  35. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, 95% now
  36. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Kufstein win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 91%)
  37. 91′We said Kufstein at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Kufstein 3–1 SVG Reichenau
  40. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Kufstein win: 37% at kick-off, over 99% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Kufstein 3–1 SVG Reichenau
  42. FTKufstein 3–1 SVG Reichenau · Kufstein win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kufstein just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kufstein 37%, draw 27%, SVG Reichenau 35%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kufstein v SVG ReichenauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kufstein win37%
Draw27%
SVG Reichenau win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kufstein

SVG Reichenau

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10SVG Reichenau12−315
12Kufstein12−111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kufstein winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
37% The market38%
Us37%
Market38%

We make Kufstein a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kufstein v SVG Reichenau1.29 – 1.25
Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 11 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 11 v 1512 v 10
The market · Kufstein win38% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:36
Our probability · Kufstein win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kufstein win37%38%−1
Draw27%25%+2
SVG Reichenau win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals46%60%−14
Both teams to score51%63%−12
Over 1.5 goals72%81%−9
Over 3.5 goals25%40%−15
Kufstein or draw65%64%+1
Kufstein clean sheet29%––
SVG Reichenau clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 8.6 9.6 6.2 2.6 1 9.9 12.8 7.7 3.3 2 6.6 8.0 5.0 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kufstein down, SVG Reichenau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsKUF 1–1 SVG · SVG 4–0 KUF · KUF 0–0 SVG · SVG 1–2 KUF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 11 Sept

KUFSTEIN

LLLLWD1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–0

SVG REICHENAU

DLLLWW2–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Imst12+1728
2Schwaz12+1128
3Hohenems12+1427
4Dornbirn12+1424
5Kitzbühel12+922
6Röthis12+321
7Swarovski Tirol II12+1420
8SK St. Johann12+418
9Fügen12−616
10SVG Reichenau12−315
11Lauterach12−512
12Kufstein12−111
13Lochau12−1311
14Lustenau12−207
15Rheindorf Altach II12−166
16Wolfurt12−224

The competition's standings before kick-off.