Hohenems v Swarovski Tirol II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hohenems 5–2 Swarovski Tirol II HOHENEMS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hohenems win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hohenems win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hohenems was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
1′KICK-OFF Hohenems v Swarovski Tirol II
19′We published Hohenems at 57%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Hohenems 1–0 Swarovski Tirol II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 76–15–9
33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Hohenems
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Hohenems 1–0 Swarovski Tirol II
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 76% now
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Hohenems
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Hohenems 1–1 Swarovski Tirol II
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Hohenems
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Swarovski Tirol II
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hohenems 1–1 Swarovski Tirol II
45′HALF-TIME Hohenems 2–1 Swarovski Tirol II
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hohenems 2–1 Swarovski Tirol II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
46′SECOND HALF Hohenems 2–1 Swarovski Tirol II
51′We said Hohenems at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–33–23
58′We published Hohenems at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hohenems 3–1 Swarovski Tirol II
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
75′We said Hohenems at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–57–16 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
82′We published Hohenems at 57%. Our model now makes it 89%. 3–2 · 89–10–1
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hohenems 3–2 Swarovski Tirol II
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Hohenems at 57%. Our model now makes it 91%. 3–2 · 91–9–1
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Hohenems
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Swarovski Tirol II
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Hohenems win 91%)
84′We published Hohenems at 57%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′6 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hohenems 4–2 Swarovski Tirol II
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Hohenems win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Hohenems win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 75%)
91′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Hohenems 5–2 Swarovski Tirol II
FTFULL TIME Hohenems 5–2 Swarovski Tirol II
FTHohenems 5–2 Swarovski Tirol II · Hohenems win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hohenems are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hohenems 57%, draw 19%, Swarovski Tirol II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Hohenems v Swarovski Tirol IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hohenems win57%

Draw19%

Swarovski Tirol II win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundWest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hohenems

Swarovski Tirol II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hohenems	12	+14	27
7	Swarovski Tirol II	12	+14	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hohenems winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Hohenems a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hohenems v Swarovski Tirol II~~2.49 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 20~~3 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hohenems win

Published at 58%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hohenems win	57%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Hohenems or draw	76%	–	–
Hohenems clean sheet	22%	–	–
Swarovski Tirol II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.2 2.7 2.2 1 4.3 7.1 5.2 2.7 2 5.5 8.2 6.3 3.3 3 4.5 6.7 5.1 2.7 4 2.8 4.2 3.2 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Hohenems down, Swarovski Tirol II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,094 Regionalliga - West matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.3% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hohenems at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Swarovski Tirol II away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Hohenems, 1.56 for Swarovski Tirol II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 12 Sept

HOHENEMS

WWWWLL2–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

SWAROVSKI TIROL II

WWWWLD3–1 · 6–0 · 4–3 · 6–1 · 3–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Imst	13	+18	31
2	Schwaz	13	+13	31
3	Hohenems	12	+14	27
4	Kitzbühel	13	+10	25
5	Dornbirn	13	+12	24
6	Röthis	12	+3	21
7	Swarovski Tirol II	12	+14	20
8	SK St. Johann	13	+2	18
9	Fügen	13	−7	16
10	SVG Reichenau	13	−5	15
11	Kufstein	13	+1	14
12	Lauterach	12	−5	12
13	Lochau	12	−13	11
14	Rheindorf Altach II	13	−14	9
15	Lustenau	12	−20	7
16	Wolfurt	13	−23	4