Home › Football › Regionalliga - West › Hohenems v Dornbirn

Hohenems v Dornbirn

Hohenems

1–2Full time

Dornbirn

Regionalliga - West · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Hohenems 1–2 Dornbirn HOHENEMS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hohenems win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.970

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hohenems win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hohenems was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–25
1′KICK-OFF Hohenems v Dornbirn
45′HALF-TIME Hohenems 0–0 Dornbirn
48′SECOND HALF Hohenems 0–0 Dornbirn
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Hohenems 1–0 Dornbirn
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Hohenems 1–0 Dornbirn
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Hohenems 1–0 Dornbirn
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Hohenems 1–0 Dornbirn
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Hohenems 1–0 Dornbirn
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Hohenems 1–1 Dornbirn
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Hohenems 1–2 Dornbirn
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hohenems 1–1 Dornbirn
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hohenems 1–2 Dornbirn
FTFULL TIME Hohenems 1–2 Dornbirn
FTHohenems 1–2 Dornbirn · Hohenems win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hohenems win54%

Draw21%

Dornbirn win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hohenems winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Hohenems a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hohenems win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hohenems win	54%	56%	−3
Draw	21%	22%	0
Dornbirn win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	65%	66%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Hohenems or draw	75%	78%	−3
Hohenems clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dornbirn clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.5 4.2 3.0 1 6.3 9.1 6.1 2.8 2 6.8 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.7 6.3 4.4 2.0 4 2.5 3.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hohenems down, Dornbirn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,073 Regionalliga - West matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hohenems at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dornbirn away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Hohenems, 1.38 for Dornbirn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HOH 4–1 DOR · DOR 1–0 HOH · DOR 0–1 HOH · HOH 1–0 DOR

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West

HOHENEMS

WWWWWW3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

DORNBIRN

WWDWLL4–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	10	+18	27
2	Imst	10	+10	22
3	Schwaz	10	+7	22
4	Kitzbühel	10	+11	21
5	Dornbirn	10	+13	20
6	SK St. Johann	10	+7	18
7	Swarovski Tirol II	10	+10	16
8	Röthis	10	+1	15
9	Fügen	10	−6	13
10	SVG Reichenau	10	−8	9
11	Lochau	10	−13	8
12	Kufstein	10	−5	7
13	Wolfurt	10	−12	7
14	Lustenau	10	−14	7
15	Lauterach	10	−9	6
16	Rheindorf Altach II	10	−10	6