Dornbirn v Kufstein prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Dornbirn 0–0 Kufstein DORNBIRN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dornbirn win~~67%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.116

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.078

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dornbirn win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dornbirn 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Dornbirn v Kufstein
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
38′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
40′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–15
45′HALF-TIME Dornbirn 0–0 Kufstein
46′SECOND HALF Dornbirn 0–0 Kufstein
50′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 46–40–14
58′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Dornbirn win 41%)
64′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–13
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
69′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–54–12
75′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–63–10
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 27% now
77′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–67–9
81′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–75–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 17% now
84′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–82–5
88′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–87–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Dornbirn win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
93′We said Dornbirn at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
FTFULL TIME Dornbirn 0–0 Kufstein
FTDornbirn 0–0 Kufstein · Dornbirn win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dornbirn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dornbirn 67%, draw 19%, Kufstein 14%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Dornbirn v KufsteinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dornbirn win67%

Draw19%

Kufstein win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundWest · matchday 12

VenueStadion Birkenwiese

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dornbirn

Kufstein

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Regionalliga - West

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dornbirn	11	+14	23
12	Kufstein	11	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dornbirn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market64%

Us67%

~~Market~~64%

We make Dornbirn a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dornbirn v Kufstein~~2.21 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 10~~4 v 12

~~The market · Dornbirn win~~64% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dornbirn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dornbirn win	67%	64%	+3
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Kufstein win	14%	16%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	66%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	60%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Dornbirn or draw	86%	84%	+2
Dornbirn clean sheet	41%	–	–
Kufstein clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 3.9 1 9.8 9.0 3.9 2 10.9 9.5 4.2 3 8.0 7.0 3.1 4 4.5 3.9 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Dornbirn down, Kufstein across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,081 Regionalliga - West matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - West matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dornbirn at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kufstein away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Dornbirn, 0.89 for Kufstein. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DOR 3–3 KUF · KUF 0–3 DOR · DOR 5–0 KUF · KUF 0–1 DOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - West this season · since 4 Sept

DORNBIRN

WDWLLW4–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

KUFSTEIN

DLLLLW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hohenems	11	+17	27
2	Imst	11	+15	25
3	Schwaz	11	+8	25
4	Dornbirn	11	+14	23
5	Kitzbühel	11	+9	21
6	Swarovski Tirol II	11	+14	19
7	SK St. Johann	11	+6	18
8	Röthis	11	+2	18
9	Fügen	11	−7	13
10	SVG Reichenau	11	−6	12
11	Lochau	11	−12	11
12	Kufstein	11	−1	10
13	Lauterach	11	−7	9
14	Lustenau	11	−19	7
15	Rheindorf Altach II	11	−14	6
16	Wolfurt	11	−19	4