Wiener Viktoria v Parndorf prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf PARNDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parndorf win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.657

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parndorf win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Parndorf was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Wiener Viktoria v Parndorf
3′We said Parndorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Parndorf win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Wiener Viktoria win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Parndorf win 19%)
25′We said Parndorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 64–23–13
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Parndorf win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Wiener Viktoria
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Parndorf win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Wiener Viktoria win 29%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Parndorf win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Wiener Viktoria win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
46′SECOND HALF Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf
47′We said Parndorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
58′We said Parndorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 25–47–28 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
59′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–48–27 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
65′We said Parndorf at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Parndorf win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Wiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf
FTWiener Viktoria 1–0 Parndorf · Parndorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Parndorf are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wiener Viktoria 34%, draw 25%, Parndorf 40%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Wiener Viktoria v ParndorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wiener Viktoria win34%

Draw25%

Parndorf win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundOst · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wiener Viktoria

Parndorf

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
10	Parndorf	11	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parndorf winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Parndorf a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wiener Viktoria v Parndorf~~1.30 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 1 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 15~~7 v 10

~~The market · Parndorf win~~43% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Parndorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wiener Viktoria win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Parndorf win	40%	43%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	64%	−13
Both teams to score	54%	66%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	75%	83%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	44%	−15
Wiener Viktoria or draw	60%	57%	+3
Wiener Viktoria clean sheet	25%	–	–
Parndorf clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 9.5 6.7 3.2 1 8.6 11.9 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.7 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wiener Viktoria down, Parndorf across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wiener Viktoria at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Parndorf away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Wiener Viktoria, 1.43 for Parndorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~WIE 1–3 PAR · WIE 0–3 PAR · PAR 2–1 WIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 1 Sept

WIENER VIKTORIA

WWWWDL5–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

PARNDORF

WLLWLD1–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	+18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	+15	23
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	+4	21
5	Krems / Rehberg	12	+4	20
6	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
7	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	11	0	17
9	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	−4	16
10	Parndorf	11	+1	15
11	Leobendorf	11	−1	14
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13
14	Donau	11	−3	12
15	SV Horn	12	−3	11
16	Wienerberg	11	−30	1