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Traiskirchen v Oberwart

Traiskirchen
1–1Full time
Oberwart

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00
Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart OBERWART WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Oberwart win45%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.967
The market’s Brier score0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Oberwart win at 45%.
  2. 7′Much as we predicted: Oberwart was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 35–21–44
  3. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  4. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  6. 21′We said Oberwart at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 58–20–22
  7. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Oberwart win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
  8. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Traiskirchen win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Oberwart win 22%)
  9. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  11. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  12. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Oberwart win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
  13. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Oberwart win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Traiskirchen win 34%)
  14. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  15. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  16. 32′We said Oberwart at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  17. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Oberwart win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
  18. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Traiskirchen win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Oberwart win 19%)
  19. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  22. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Traiskirchen 1–0 Oberwart
  24. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  25. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  26. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  27. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  28. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  29. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  30. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  31. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Traiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart
  32. FTTraiskirchen 1–1 Oberwart · Oberwart win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Traiskirchen win36%
Draw20%
Oberwart win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oberwart winPublished 9 Oct 18:34
45% The market35%
Us45%
Market35%

We make Oberwart a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:179 OCT 16:04
Our probability · oberwart win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Traiskirchen win36%42%−6
Draw20%23%−3
Oberwart win45%35%+10
Over 2.5 goals77%69%+8
Both teams to score75%69%+6
Over 1.5 goals91%85%+6
Over 3.5 goals58%49%+9
Traiskirchen or draw55%65%−10
Traiskirchen clean sheet12%––
Oberwart clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.3%
0123450 3.8 3.9 2.8 1 3.5 6.9 7.3 5.2 2.9 2 3.2 6.6 6.9 4.9 2.7 3 2.1 4.2 4.4 3.2 4 2.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Traiskirchen down, Oberwart across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsOBE 3–0 TRA · TRA 4–1 OBE · TRA 1–2 OBE · OBE 1–0 TRA

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost

TRAISKIRCHEN

DWLWWL1–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 0–1

OBERWART

WLLWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf10+1622
2Oberwart10+821
3Wiener SC10+1319
4Scheiblingkirchen10018
5Wiener Viktoria10+617
6Traiskirchen10+317
7Fach-Donaufeld10+317
8Krems / Rehberg10+214
9Parndorf10+114
10Mattersburg SV 202010−113
11SV Horn10−111
12Donau10−311
13Leobendorf10−411
14Gloggnitz10−711
15Favoritner AC10−610
16Wienerberg10−300

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.