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Model 1.2

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SV Horn v Wiener SC

SV Horn
3–4Full time
Wiener SC

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 23 OCT · Sparkasse Horn Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
SV Horn 3–4 Wiener SC WIENER SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wiener SC win38%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.583
The market’s Brier score0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wiener SC win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Wiener SC 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SV Horn v Wiener SC
  4. 20′We said Wiener SC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' SV Horn 0–1 Wiener SC
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 64% now
  7. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Wiener SC win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was SV Horn win 36%)
  8. 22′We said Wiener SC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME SV Horn 0–2 Wiener SC
  12. 46′We said Wiener SC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  13. 46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+1' Wiener SC
  14. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 31% now
  15. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Wiener SC win 69%)
  16. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' SV Horn 0–2 Wiener SC
  17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 91% now
  18. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Wiener SC win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 38%)
  19. 46′SECOND HALF SV Horn 0–2 Wiener SC
  20. 47′We said Wiener SC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  21. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' SV Horn 0–3 Wiener SC
  22. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  23. 48′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  24. 53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Wiener SC
  25. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' SV Horn 0–3 Wiener SC
  27. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
  28. 55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Wiener SC
  29. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
  30. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Wiener SC win 99%)
  31. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' SV Horn 0–3 Wiener SC
  32. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Wiener SC win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
  33. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Wiener SC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 43%)
  34. 63′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  35. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' SV Horn 1–3 Wiener SC
  36. 74′We said Wiener SC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  37. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' SV Horn 1–4 Wiener SC
  38. 75′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  39. 78′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  40. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' SV Horn 2–4 Wiener SC
  41. 92′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–3–97
  42. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' SV Horn 3–4 Wiener SC
  43. FTFULL TIME SV Horn 3–4 Wiener SC
  44. FTSV Horn 3–4 Wiener SC · Wiener SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wiener SC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Horn 38%, draw 24%, Wiener SC 38%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on SV Horn v Wiener SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SV Horn win38%
Draw24%
Wiener SC win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundOst · matchday 13

VenueSparkasse Horn Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Horn

Wiener SC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Wiener SC12+1523
15SV Horn12−311

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wiener sc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
38% The market57%
Us38%
Market57%

We make Wiener SC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SV Horn v Wiener SC1.46 – 1.48
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 11 v 2315 v 2
The market · Wiener SC win57% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:09
Our probability · Wiener SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Horn win38%21%+17
Draw24%23%+1
Wiener SC win38%57%−19
Over 2.5 goals56%61%−5
Both teams to score58%60%−2
Over 1.5 goals78%81%−3
Over 3.5 goals34%41%−7
SV Horn or draw62%43%+19
SV Horn clean sheet24%––
Wiener SC clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.5 8.0 5.8 2.9 1 8.0 11.1 8.1 4.0 2 5.7 8.1 5.9 2.9 3 2.8 4.0 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Horn down, Wiener SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsWIE 0–1 SVH · SVH 5–1 WIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept

SV HORN

LWLLLL1–3 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

WIENER SC

WLWLDW6–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf12+1825
2Wiener SC12+1523
3Oberwart12+823
4Traiskirchen12+421
5Wiener Viktoria12+620
6Krems / Rehberg12+420
7Fach-Donaufeld12+120
8Scheiblingkirchen12−119
9Leobendorf12+217
10Mattersburg SV 202012−416
11Parndorf12015
12Favoritner AC12−613
13Gloggnitz12−713
14Donau12−412
15SV Horn12−311
16Wienerberg12−331

The competition's standings before kick-off.