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SV Horn v Favoritner AC

SV Horn

0–1Full time

Favoritner AC

Regionalliga - Ost · SAT 10 OCT · Sparkasse Horn Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC SV HORN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Horn win~~55%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.983

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Horn win at 55%.
2′Little has changed for our model: SV Horn 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
3′KICK-OFF SV Horn v Favoritner AC
45′HALF-TIME SV Horn 0–0 Favoritner AC
46′SECOND HALF SV Horn 0–0 Favoritner AC
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC
FTFULL TIME SV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC
FTSV Horn 0–1 Favoritner AC · SV Horn win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SV Horn win55%

Draw23%

Favoritner AC win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Sparkasse Horn Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv horn winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

55% The market50%

Us55%

~~Market~~50%

We make SV Horn a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sv horn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Horn win	55%	50%	+6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Favoritner AC win	21%	26%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−8
SV Horn or draw	79%	74%	+5
SV Horn clean sheet	38%	–	–
Favoritner AC clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.8 6.6 3.2 1 11.6 10.9 5.3 2 9.9 9.5 4.6 3 5.8 5.6 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Horn down, Favoritner AC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Horn at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Favoritner AC away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for SV Horn, 0.98 for Favoritner AC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SVH 1–2 FAV · FAV 0–1 SVH

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost

SV HORN

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 1–3

FAVORITNER AC

WWLLLD2–0 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
5	Scheiblingkirchen	10	0	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	10	+3	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
11	SV Horn	10	−1	11
12	Donau	10	−3	11
13	Leobendorf	10	−4	11
14	Gloggnitz	10	−7	11
15	Favoritner AC	10	−6	10
16	Wienerberg	10	−30	0