Scheiblingkirchen v Krems / Rehberg prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Scheiblingkirchen 1–2 Krems / Rehberg KREMS / REHBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krems / Rehberg win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Krems / Rehberg win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Krems / Rehberg 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
1′KICK-OFF Scheiblingkirchen v Krems / Rehberg
4′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 13–17–70
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Scheiblingkirchen 0–1 Krems / Rehberg
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Krems / Rehberg win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
42′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Scheiblingkirchen 0–2 Krems / Rehberg
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Krems / Rehberg win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Scheiblingkirchen 0–2 Krems / Rehberg
46′SECOND HALF Scheiblingkirchen 0–2 Krems / Rehberg
56′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
58′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 5–19–76
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Scheiblingkirchen 1–2 Krems / Rehberg
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Krems / Rehberg win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
67′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
76′We said Krems / Rehberg at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Krems / Rehberg win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Krems / Rehberg win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Scheiblingkirchen 1–2 Krems / Rehberg
FTScheiblingkirchen 1–2 Krems / Rehberg · Krems / Rehberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Krems / Rehberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Scheiblingkirchen 31%, draw 23%, Krems / Rehberg 46%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Scheiblingkirchen v Krems / RehbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Scheiblingkirchen win31%

Draw23%

Krems / Rehberg win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundOst · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Scheiblingkirchen

Krems / Rehberg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	0	19
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krems / rehberg winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Krems / Rehberg a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Scheiblingkirchen v Krems / Rehberg~~1.37 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 17~~4 v 7

~~The market · Krems / Rehberg win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Krems / Rehberg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Scheiblingkirchen win	31%	28%	+3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Krems / Rehberg win	46%	48%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Scheiblingkirchen or draw	54%	52%	+2
Scheiblingkirchen clean sheet	18%	–	–
Krems / Rehberg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.8 8.0 6.8 4.0 1 6.3 10.4 8.8 5.1 2.3 2 4.3 7.0 6.0 3.5 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Scheiblingkirchen down, Krems / Rehberg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Scheiblingkirchen at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Krems / Rehberg away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Scheiblingkirchen, 1.74 for Krems / Rehberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 5 Sept

SCHEIBLINGKIRCHEN

LDDWWD1–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

KREMS / REHBERG

WWLWWW3–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	0	19
5	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	11	0	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Leobendorf	11	−1	14
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
12	Favoritner AC	11	−5	13
13	Donau	11	−3	12
14	Gloggnitz	11	−7	12
15	SV Horn	11	−2	11
16	Wienerberg	11	−30	1