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Parndorf v Scheiblingkirchen

Parndorf

5–0Full time

Scheiblingkirchen

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Parndorf 5–0 Scheiblingkirchen PARNDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parndorf win~~57%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.280

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parndorf win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parndorf 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF Parndorf v Scheiblingkirchen
12′We said Parndorf at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Parndorf 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
45′HALF-TIME Parndorf 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Parndorf
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
46′We said Parndorf at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Parndorf 2–0 Scheiblingkirchen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Parndorf 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Parndorf 2–0 Scheiblingkirchen
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
62′We said Parndorf at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–47–18
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Parndorf
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 36% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Parndorf win 97%)
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Parndorf 2–0 Scheiblingkirchen
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Parndorf win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 47%)
63′We said Parndorf at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Parndorf 3–0 Scheiblingkirchen
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Parndorf 4–0 Scheiblingkirchen
90′We said Parndorf at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–0 · 6–90–3
90′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Parndorf
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, 6% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Parndorf win over 99%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Parndorf 4–0 Scheiblingkirchen
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Parndorf win: 57% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Parndorf win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 90%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Parndorf 5–0 Scheiblingkirchen
FTFULL TIME Parndorf 5–0 Scheiblingkirchen
FTParndorf 5–0 Scheiblingkirchen · Parndorf win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Parndorf are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parndorf 57%, draw 21%, Scheiblingkirchen 22%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Parndorf v ScheiblingkirchenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Parndorf win57%

Draw21%

Scheiblingkirchen win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundOst · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parndorf

Scheiblingkirchen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
11	Parndorf	12	0	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parndorf winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make Parndorf a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parndorf v Scheiblingkirchen~~1.99 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~11 v 8

~~The market · Parndorf win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Parndorf win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parndorf win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Scheiblingkirchen win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Parndorf or draw	78%	80%	−2
Parndorf clean sheet	33%	–	–
Scheiblingkirchen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.7 5.3 2.9 1 9.0 9.7 5.5 2.1 2 8.6 9.4 5.3 2.1 3 5.7 6.2 3.5 4 2.9 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parndorf down, Scheiblingkirchen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Parndorf at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Scheiblingkirchen away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Parndorf, 1.14 for Scheiblingkirchen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept

PARNDORF

LLWLDL1–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

SCHEIBLINGKIRCHEN

DDWWDL1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	+18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	+15	23
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	+4	21
5	Wiener Viktoria	12	+6	20
6	Krems / Rehberg	12	+4	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	12	+1	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
9	Leobendorf	12	+2	17
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	−4	16
11	Parndorf	12	0	15
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13
14	Donau	12	−4	12
15	SV Horn	12	−3	11
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1