Oberwart v Favoritner AC prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Oberwart 3–0 Favoritner AC OBERWART WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oberwart win~~64%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.196

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.210

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oberwart win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Oberwart 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Oberwart v Favoritner AC
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
35′We said Oberwart at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Oberwart 1–0 Favoritner AC
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
44′We said Oberwart at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Oberwart 2–0 Favoritner AC
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Oberwart 2–0 Favoritner AC
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Oberwart
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 50% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Oberwart 2–0 Favoritner AC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
46′SECOND HALF Oberwart 2–0 Favoritner AC
59′We said Oberwart at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–44–15
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Oberwart
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 41% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Oberwart 2–0 Favoritner AC
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Oberwart win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
64′We said Oberwart at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–48–14
69′We said Oberwart at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–54–13
74′We said Oberwart at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–62–11
75′We said Oberwart at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Oberwart 3–0 Favoritner AC
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Oberwart
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Oberwart 3–0 Favoritner AC
FTFULL TIME Oberwart 3–0 Favoritner AC
FTOberwart 3–0 Favoritner AC · Oberwart win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oberwart are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oberwart 64%, draw 20%, Favoritner AC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Oberwart v Favoritner ACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Oberwart win64%

Draw20%

Favoritner AC win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundOst · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oberwart

Favoritner AC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oberwart winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market63%

Us64%

~~Market~~63%

We make Oberwart a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oberwart v Favoritner AC~~2.13 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 13~~3 v 12

~~The market · Oberwart win~~63% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oberwart win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oberwart win	64%	63%	+1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Favoritner AC win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Oberwart or draw	84%	83%	+1
Oberwart clean sheet	39%	–	–
Favoritner AC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.8 4.6 2.2 1 10.0 9.1 4.4 2 10.3 9.6 4.6 3 7.3 6.8 3.2 4 3.9 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oberwart down, Favoritner AC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oberwart at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Favoritner AC away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Oberwart, 0.96 for Favoritner AC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OBE 4–1 FAV · FAV 3–2 OBE · FAV 0–0 OBE · OBE 4–0 FAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept

OBERWART

LWWWDD1–3 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

FAVORITNER AC

LLLDWL0–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	+18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	+15	23
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	+4	21
5	Wiener Viktoria	12	+6	20
6	Krems / Rehberg	12	+4	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	12	+1	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
9	Leobendorf	12	+2	17
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	−4	16
11	Parndorf	12	0	15
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13
14	Donau	12	−4	12
15	SV Horn	12	−3	11
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1