Mattersburg SV 2020 v SV Horn prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Mattersburg SV 2020 1–0 SV Horn SV HORN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Horn win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.679

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Horn are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mattersburg SV 2020 33%, draw 26%, SV Horn 41%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Mattersburg SV 2020 v SV HornBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Mattersburg SV 2020 win33%

Draw26%

SV Horn win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundOst · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mattersburg SV 2020

SV Horn

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
15	SV Horn	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv horn winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make SV Horn a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mattersburg SV 2020 v SV Horn~~1.24 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~11 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SV Horn win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mattersburg SV 2020 win	33%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
SV Horn win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Mattersburg SV 2020 or draw	59%	–	–
Mattersburg SV 2020 clean sheet	25%	–	–
SV Horn clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.3 10.0 7.0 3.3 1 8.9 12.0 8.4 4.0 2 5.5 7.4 5.2 2.5 3 2.3 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mattersburg SV 2020 down, SV Horn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mattersburg SV 2020 at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). SV Horn away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Mattersburg SV 2020, 1.41 for SV Horn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 1 Sept

MATTERSBURG SV 2020

WLDLWL3–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–4

SV HORN

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	0	19
5	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	11	0	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Leobendorf	11	−1	14
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
12	Favoritner AC	11	−5	13
13	Donau	11	−3	12
14	Gloggnitz	11	−7	12
15	SV Horn	11	−2	11
16	Wienerberg	11	−30	1