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Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf v Wiener Viktoria

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

3–0Full time

Wiener Viktoria

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 23 OCT · Aulandstadion Mannsdorf

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3–0 Wiener Viktoria MANNSDORF-GROSSENZERSDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win~~60%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.192

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–19
1′KICK-OFF Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf v Wiener Viktoria
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
41′We said Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–18
45′HALF-TIME Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 0–0 Wiener Viktoria
46′SECOND HALF Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 0–0 Wiener Viktoria
49′We said Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–42–17
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
58′We said Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–16
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win 42%)
59′We published Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–3
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1–0 Wiener Viktoria
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 45%)
63′We published Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′We published Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2–0 Wiener Viktoria
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We published Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′GOAL DISALLOWED · 83' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, 13% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win over 99%)
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2–0 Wiener Viktoria
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 81%)
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3–0 Wiener Viktoria
FTFULL TIME Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3–0 Wiener Viktoria
FTMannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3–0 Wiener Viktoria · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 60%, draw 21%, Wiener Viktoria 19%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf v Wiener ViktoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win60%

Draw21%

Wiener Viktoria win19%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundOst · matchday 13

VenueAulandstadion Mannsdorf

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Wiener Viktoria

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mannsdorf-großenzersdorf winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

60% The market64%

Us60%

~~Market~~64%

We make Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf v Wiener Viktoria~~1.96 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 20~~1 v 5

~~The market · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win~~64% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf win	60%	64%	−4
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Wiener Viktoria win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	69%	−13
Both teams to score	53%	63%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	78%	87%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	34%	50%	−16
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw	81%	84%	−3
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf clean sheet	38%	–	–
Wiener Viktoria clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.6%

0123450 5.5 5.5 2.6 1 10.6 9.9 4.9 2 10.1 9.6 4.7 3 6.6 6.3 3.1 4 3.3 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf down, Wiener Viktoria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wiener Viktoria away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf, 0.98 for Wiener Viktoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WIE 0–3 MAN · MAN 2–0 WIE · MAN 4–0 WIE · WIE 0–4 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept

MANNSDORF-GROSSENZERSDORF

WWLDWL3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–2

WIENER VIKTORIA

WWWDLW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	+18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	+15	23
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	+4	21
5	Wiener Viktoria	12	+6	20
6	Krems / Rehberg	12	+4	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	12	+1	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
9	Leobendorf	12	+2	17
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	−4	16
11	Parndorf	12	0	15
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13
14	Donau	12	−4	12
15	SV Horn	12	−3	11
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1