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Leobendorf v Gloggnitz

Leobendorf

1–1Full time

Gloggnitz

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 23 OCT · Franz Haas Stadion

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Leobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz LEOBENDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Leobendorf win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.914

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leobendorf win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leobendorf was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Leobendorf v Gloggnitz
10′We published Leobendorf at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Leobendorf 1–0 Gloggnitz
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
16′GOAL DISALLOWED · 16' Leobendorf
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 48% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Leobendorf 1–0 Gloggnitz
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
28′We published Leobendorf at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Leobendorf
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Leobendorf 1–0 Gloggnitz
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Leobendorf 1–0 Gloggnitz
46′SECOND HALF Leobendorf 1–0 Gloggnitz
59′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–46–21
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Leobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 33% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Leobendorf win 79%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
66′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
72′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Leobendorf
76′GOAL DISALLOWED · 76' Gloggnitz
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Leobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz
77′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Leobendorf
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Gloggnitz
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Leobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Leobendorf win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–6
92′We said Leobendorf at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
FTFULL TIME Leobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz
FTLeobendorf 1–1 Gloggnitz · Leobendorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leobendorf are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leobendorf 50%, draw 23%, Gloggnitz 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Leobendorf v GloggnitzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Leobendorf win50%

Draw23%

Gloggnitz win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundOst · matchday 13

VenueFranz Haas Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leobendorf

Gloggnitz

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Leobendorf	12	+2	17
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leobendorf winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Leobendorf a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leobendorf v Gloggnitz~~1.76 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~9 v 13

~~The market · Leobendorf win~~52% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leobendorf win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leobendorf win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Gloggnitz win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Leobendorf or draw	73%	76%	−3
Leobendorf clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gloggnitz clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.4 6.5 3.8 1 9.3 10.7 6.5 2.6 2 8.0 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.7 5.5 3.3 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leobendorf down, Gloggnitz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leobendorf at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gloggnitz away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Leobendorf, 1.20 for Gloggnitz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GLO 1–0 LEO · LEO 0–1 GLO · GLO 2–2 LEO · LEO 5–0 GLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 12 Sept

LEOBENDORF

WWLLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

GLOGGNITZ

DLLWDD1–1 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	12	+18	25
2	Wiener SC	12	+15	23
3	Oberwart	12	+8	23
4	Traiskirchen	12	+4	21
5	Wiener Viktoria	12	+6	20
6	Krems / Rehberg	12	+4	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	12	+1	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	12	−1	19
9	Leobendorf	12	+2	17
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	12	−4	16
11	Parndorf	12	0	15
12	Favoritner AC	12	−6	13
13	Gloggnitz	12	−7	13
14	Donau	12	−4	12
15	SV Horn	12	−3	11
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1