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Leobendorf v Fach-Donaufeld

Leobendorf

3–0Full time

Fach-Donaufeld

Regionalliga - Ost · SUN 11 OCT · Franz Haas Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Leobendorf 3–0 Fach-Donaufeld LEOBENDORF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leobendorf win~~37%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leobendorf win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Leobendorf was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Leobendorf v Fach-Donaufeld
3′Much as we predicted: Leobendorf was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Leobendorf 1–0 Fach-Donaufeld
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
40′We published Leobendorf at 37%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Leobendorf win: 37% at kick-off, 91% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Leobendorf win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Leobendorf win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Leobendorf win: 37% at kick-off, 91% now
42′We published Leobendorf at 37%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Leobendorf win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
46′SECOND HALF Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Leobendorf 2–0 Fach-Donaufeld
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Leobendorf 3–0 Fach-Donaufeld
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Leobendorf 3–0 Fach-Donaufeld
FTFULL TIME Leobendorf 3–0 Fach-Donaufeld
FTLeobendorf 3–0 Fach-Donaufeld · Leobendorf win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Leobendorf win37%

Draw27%

Fach-Donaufeld win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueFranz Haas Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leobendorf

Fach-Donaufeld

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Fach-Donaufeld	10	+3	17
15	Leobendorf	10	−4	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leobendorf winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market34%

Us37%

~~Market~~34%

We make Leobendorf a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leobendorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leobendorf win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Fach-Donaufeld win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Leobendorf or draw	64%	60%	+4
Leobendorf clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fach-Donaufeld clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.3 10.0 6.2 2.7 1 10.2 12.4 7.8 3.3 2 6.5 7.9 4.9 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leobendorf down, Fach-Donaufeld across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leobendorf at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fach-Donaufeld away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Leobendorf, 1.25 for Fach-Donaufeld. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LEO 0–1 FAC · FAC 0–1 LEO · FAC 3–1 LEO · LEO 0–1 FAC

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost

LEOBENDORF

LLWWLL0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

FACH-DONAUFELD

LDLDWW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	0	19
5	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	10	+3	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
11	Favoritner AC	11	−5	13
12	Donau	11	−3	12
13	Gloggnitz	11	−7	12
14	SV Horn	11	−2	11
15	Leobendorf	10	−4	11
16	Wienerberg	11	−30	1