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Krems / Rehberg v Fach-Donaufeld

Krems / Rehberg
4–3Full time
Fach-Donaufeld

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33
Krems / Rehberg 4–3 Fach-Donaufeld KREMS / REHBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Krems / Rehberg win50%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.382
The market’s Brier score0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Krems / Rehberg win at 50%.
  2. 3′Much as we predicted: Krems / Rehberg was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
  3. 3′KICK-OFF Krems / Rehberg v Fach-Donaufeld
  4. 18′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–54
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Krems / Rehberg 0–1 Fach-Donaufeld
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Fach-Donaufeld win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Krems / Rehberg win 46%)
  8. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  9. 25′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
  10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Krems / Rehberg 0–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
  12. 26′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–25–56
  13. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Krems / Rehberg 1–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  14. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 19% now
  15. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 18–25–57
  16. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Krems / Rehberg
  17. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 6% now
  18. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Krems / Rehberg 1–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  19. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
  20. 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Krems / Rehberg
  21. 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Fach-Donaufeld
  22. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 43% now
  23. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Krems / Rehberg win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Fach-Donaufeld win 57%)
  24. 34′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 42–33–24
  25. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Krems / Rehberg 2–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  26. 39′We published Krems / Rehberg at 50%. Our model now makes it 76%. 3–2 · 76–17–6
  27. 39′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–17–6
  28. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Krems / Rehberg 3–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  29. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
  30. 45′HALF-TIME Krems / Rehberg 3–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  31. 46′SECOND HALF Krems / Rehberg 3–2 Fach-Donaufeld
  32. 52′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 3–3 · 36–43–22
  33. 52′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 36–43–22
  34. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Krems / Rehberg 3–3 Fach-Donaufeld
  35. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 36% now
  36. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Krems / Rehberg win 78%)
  37. 55′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 3–3 · 34–45–21
  38. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  39. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Krems / Rehberg
  40. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Fach-Donaufeld
  41. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Krems / Rehberg 3–3 Fach-Donaufeld
  42. 64′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 29–53–18
  43. 67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Krems / Rehberg
  44. 67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 67' Fach-Donaufeld
  45. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Krems / Rehberg 3–3 Fach-Donaufeld
  46. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  47. 81′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 3–3 · 14–77–9
  48. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  49. 91′We said Krems / Rehberg at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–93–3
  50. 93′We published Krems / Rehberg at 50%. Our model now makes it 98%. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  51. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Krems / Rehberg 4–3 Fach-Donaufeld
  52. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Krems / Rehberg win: 50% at kick-off, 98% now
  53. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Krems / Rehberg win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
  54. 94′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 99–1–0
  55. FTFULL TIME Krems / Rehberg 4–3 Fach-Donaufeld
  56. FTKrems / Rehberg 4–3 Fach-Donaufeld · Krems / Rehberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Krems / Rehberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krems / Rehberg 50%, draw 24%, Fach-Donaufeld 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Krems / Rehberg v Fach-DonaufeldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Krems / Rehberg win50%
Draw24%
Fach-Donaufeld win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundOst · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krems / Rehberg

Fach-Donaufeld

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Krems / Rehberg12+420
7Fach-Donaufeld12+120

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krems / rehberg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
50% The market40%
Us50%
Market40%

We make Krems / Rehberg a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Krems / Rehberg v Fach-Donaufeld1.63 – 1.10
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 12 SeptW5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 20 v 206 v 7
The market · Krems / Rehberg win40% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:39
Our probability · Krems / Rehberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Krems / Rehberg win50%40%+10
Draw24%26%−2
Fach-Donaufeld win26%34%−8
Over 2.5 goals51%57%−6
Both teams to score53%61%−8
Over 1.5 goals75%78%−3
Over 3.5 goals29%37%−8
Krems / Rehberg or draw74%66%+8
Krems / Rehberg clean sheet34%––
Fach-Donaufeld clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 6.7 7.4 4.0 1 10.8 11.3 6.3 2.4 2 8.6 9.2 5.1 3 4.7 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Krems / Rehberg down, Fach-Donaufeld across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsKRE 2–0 FAC · FAC 1–1 KRE · KRE 0–0 FAC · FAC 3–2 KRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 12 Sept

KREMS / REHBERG

WLWWWW3–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

FACH-DONAUFELD

LDWWLW0–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf12+1825
2Wiener SC12+1523
3Oberwart12+823
4Traiskirchen12+421
5Wiener Viktoria12+620
6Krems / Rehberg12+420
7Fach-Donaufeld12+120
8Scheiblingkirchen12−119
9Leobendorf12+217
10Mattersburg SV 202012−416
11Parndorf12015
12Favoritner AC12−613
13Gloggnitz12−713
14Donau12−412
15SV Horn12−311
16Wienerberg12−331

The competition's standings before kick-off.