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Favoritner AC v Traiskirchen

Favoritner AC

1–2Full time

Traiskirchen

Regionalliga - Ost · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Favoritner AC 1–2 Traiskirchen TRAISKIRCHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Traiskirchen win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Traiskirchen win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Traiskirchen was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Favoritner AC v Traiskirchen
34′We published Traiskirchen at 44%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–20–69
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–69
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Favoritner AC 0–1 Traiskirchen
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Favoritner AC 1–1 Traiskirchen
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
39′We said Traiskirchen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
45′HALF-TIME Favoritner AC 1–1 Traiskirchen
46′SECOND HALF Favoritner AC 1–1 Traiskirchen
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Traiskirchen win 33%)
57′We said Traiskirchen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 27–41–32
63′We said Traiskirchen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 25–46–29
71′We said Traiskirchen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 21–55–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
74′We published Traiskirchen at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–2 · 2–16–81
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Favoritner AC 1–2 Traiskirchen
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Traiskirchen win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
78′We published Traiskirchen at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
83′We published Traiskirchen at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Traiskirchen win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
90′We published Traiskirchen at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Favoritner AC 1–2 Traiskirchen
FTFavoritner AC 1–2 Traiskirchen · Traiskirchen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Traiskirchen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Favoritner AC 34%, draw 22%, Traiskirchen 44%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Favoritner AC v TraiskirchenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Favoritner AC win34%

Draw22%

Traiskirchen win44%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:10

RoundOst · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Favoritner AC

Traiskirchen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
12	Favoritner AC	11	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · traiskirchen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Traiskirchen a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Favoritner AC v Traiskirchen~~1.58 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~12 v 5

~~The market · Traiskirchen win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Traiskirchen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Favoritner AC win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Traiskirchen win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	65%	62%	+3
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Favoritner AC or draw	56%	52%	+4
Favoritner AC clean sheet	17%	–	–
Traiskirchen clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 6.3 5.6 3.4 1 5.5 9.5 8.5 5.1 2.4 2 4.3 7.4 6.6 4.0 3 2.3 4.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Favoritner AC down, Traiskirchen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Favoritner AC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Traiskirchen away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Favoritner AC, 1.81 for Traiskirchen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FAV 3–2 TRA · TRA 4–1 FAV · TRA 3–1 FAV · FAV 2–0 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 4 Sept

FAVORITNER AC

WLLLDW3–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

TRAISKIRCHEN

WLWWLD3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Scheiblingkirchen	11	0	19
5	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	11	0	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Leobendorf	11	−1	14
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
12	Favoritner AC	11	−5	13
13	Donau	11	−3	12
14	Gloggnitz	11	−7	12
15	SV Horn	11	−2	11
16	Wienerberg	11	−30	1