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Donau v Wienerberg

Donau

8–1Full time

Wienerberg

Regionalliga - Ost · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Donau 8–1 Wienerberg DONAU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Donau win~~70%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.135

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Donau win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Donau 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
1′KICK-OFF Donau v Wienerberg
2′We said Donau at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–21–30
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Donau 0–1 Wienerberg
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 49% now
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Donau 1–1 Wienerberg
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 67% now
22′We said Donau at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–10–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Donau 2–1 Wienerberg
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
27′We said Donau at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–11–5
34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Donau
34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Wienerberg
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 61% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Donau 2–1 Wienerberg
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 84% now
36′We said Donau at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Donau 3–1 Wienerberg
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
37′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–1
38′5 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Donau 4–1 Wienerberg
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Donau
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Wienerberg
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 58% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Donau 4–1 Wienerberg
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 99% now
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Donau
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Wienerberg
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 56% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Donau 4–1 Wienerberg
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Donau 4–1 Wienerberg
46′SECOND HALF Donau 4–1 Wienerberg
50′We said Donau at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–31–16
54′We said Donau at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
66′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Donau 5–1 Wienerberg
71′7 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Donau 6–1 Wienerberg
74′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 7–1 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Donau 7–1 Wienerberg
79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Donau
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Donau 7–1 Wienerberg
85′We said Donau at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–6
85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' Donau
85′GOAL DISALLOWED · 85' Wienerberg
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, 14% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Donau win over 99%)
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Donau 7–1 Wienerberg
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Donau win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Donau win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 80%)
89′9 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 8–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Donau 8–1 Wienerberg
FTFULL TIME Donau 8–1 Wienerberg
FTDonau 8–1 Wienerberg · Donau win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Donau are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Donau 70%, draw 16%, Wienerberg 14%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Donau v WienerbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Donau win70%

Draw16%

Wienerberg win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundOst · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Donau

Wienerberg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Ost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Donau	12	−4	12
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · donau winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market70%

Us70%

~~Market~~70%

We make Donau a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Donau v Wienerberg~~2.72 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 1~~14 v 16

~~The market · Donau win~~70% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Donau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Donau win	70%	70%	0
Draw	16%	17%	−1
Wienerberg win	14%	13%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	74%	65%	+9
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Donau or draw	86%	87%	−1
Donau clean sheet	32%	–	–
Wienerberg clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.2 2.6 1 5.9 6.5 3.8 2 7.7 8.6 4.9 3 6.9 7.7 4.4 4 4.7 5.3 3.0 5 2.6 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Donau down, Wienerberg across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,273 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Donau at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wienerberg away: 0.40 scored, 3.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.72 goals for Donau, 1.15 for Wienerberg. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DON 0–0 WIE · WIE 2–0 DON · DON 1–0 WIE · WIE 5–1 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost this season · since 11 Sept

DONAU

WDLDDL4–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

WIENERBERG

LLLLDL0–6 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	13	+21	28
2	Wiener SC	13	+16	26
3	Oberwart	13	+11	26
4	Traiskirchen	13	+5	24
5	Krems / Rehberg	13	+5	23
6	Wiener Viktoria	13	+3	20
7	Fach-Donaufeld	13	0	20
8	Scheiblingkirchen	13	−6	19
9	Parndorf	13	+5	18
10	Leobendorf	13	+2	18
11	Mattersburg SV 2020	13	−5	16
12	Gloggnitz	13	−7	14
13	Favoritner AC	13	−9	13
14	Donau	12	−4	12
15	SV Horn	13	−4	11
16	Wienerberg	12	−33	1