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Donau v Scheiblingkirchen

Donau

2–2Full time

Scheiblingkirchen

Regionalliga - Ost · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Donau 2–2 Scheiblingkirchen DONAU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Donau win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.932

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Donau win at 44%.
16′Little has changed for our model: Donau 44% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–33
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Donau 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
37′We said Donau at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–12
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Donau win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Donau 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
45′HALF-TIME Donau 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
46′SECOND HALF Donau 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Donau 1–0 Scheiblingkirchen
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Donau 1–1 Scheiblingkirchen
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Donau 1–1 Scheiblingkirchen
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Donau 1–1 Scheiblingkirchen
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Donau 1–2 Scheiblingkirchen
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Donau 1–2 Scheiblingkirchen
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Donau 1–2 Scheiblingkirchen
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Donau 1–2 Scheiblingkirchen
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Donau 2–2 Scheiblingkirchen
FTFULL TIME Donau 2–2 Scheiblingkirchen
FTDonau 2–2 Scheiblingkirchen · Donau win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Donau win44%

Draw21%

Scheiblingkirchen win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · donau winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Donau a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · donau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Donau win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Scheiblingkirchen win	34%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	60%	+9
Both teams to score	68%	62%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	48%	39%	+9
Donau or draw	66%	70%	−4
Donau clean sheet	20%	–	–
Scheiblingkirchen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 4.9 4.0 2.2 1 5.6 8.7 7.1 4.0 2 5.2 8.2 6.6 3.7 3 3.3 5.2 4.2 2.4 4 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Donau down, Scheiblingkirchen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 Regionalliga - Ost matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Ost matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Donau at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Scheiblingkirchen away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Donau, 1.67 for Scheiblingkirchen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Ost

DONAU

DWWDLD1–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

SCHEIBLINGKIRCHEN

WLDDWW2–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	11	+20	25
2	Oberwart	11	+8	22
3	Wiener SC	11	+13	20
4	Traiskirchen	11	+3	18
5	Scheiblingkirchen	10	0	18
6	Wiener Viktoria	11	+5	17
7	Krems / Rehberg	11	+3	17
8	Fach-Donaufeld	10	+3	17
9	Parndorf	11	+1	15
10	Mattersburg SV 2020	11	−5	13
11	SV Horn	10	−1	11
12	Donau	10	−3	11
13	Leobendorf	10	−4	11
14	Gloggnitz	10	−7	11
15	Favoritner AC	10	−6	10
16	Wienerberg	10	−30	0