Sturm Graz W v LASK W prediction · Frauenliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Sturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W STURM GRAZ W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sturm Graz W win~~68%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.153

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.131

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sturm Graz W win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sturm Graz W 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–14
1′KICK-OFF Sturm Graz W v LASK W
4′Sturm Graz W find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sturm Graz W 1–0 LASK W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Sturm Graz W win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
5′We said Sturm Graz W at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
17′A goal for Sturm Graz W on 16′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sturm Graz W 2–0 LASK W
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sturm Graz W win: 68% at kick-off, 96% now
18′We said Sturm Graz W at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
22′Sturm Graz W score on 22′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Sturm Graz W 3–0 LASK W
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Sturm Graz W win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
26′Sturm Graz W find the net on 26′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sturm Graz W 4–0 LASK W
27′We said Sturm Graz W at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′A goal for Sturm Graz W on 30′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Sturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W
31′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Sturm Graz W
45′HALF-TIME Sturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W
46′SECOND HALF Sturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' LASK W · On: S. Szabova · Off: A. Guvo
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' LASK W · On: K. Kirpu · Off: P. Willimek
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sturm Graz W · On: L. Tragl · Off: J. Wattilete
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' LASK W · On: M. Sterrer · Off: E. Herbst
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sturm Graz W · On: K. Weber · Off: M. Spiess
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sturm Graz W · On: E. Kaiser · Off: S. Pavlovic
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' LASK W
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sturm Graz W · On: N. Wippel · Off: L. Krumbock
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sturm Graz W · On: M. Achatz · Off: S. Grossgasteiger
FTFULL TIME Sturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W
FTSturm Graz W 5–0 LASK W · Sturm Graz W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sturm Graz W 68%, draw 18%, LASK W 14%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sturm Graz W v LASK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sturm Graz W win68%

Draw18%

LASK W win14%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sturm Graz W

LASK W

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauenliga

Last match: 17 Oct · Frauenliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sturm graz w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

68% The market71%

Us68%

~~Market~~71%

We make Sturm Graz W a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sturm Graz W v LASK W~~2.19 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 11~~1 v 6

~~The market · Sturm Graz W win~~71% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sturm Graz W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sturm Graz W win	68%	71%	−3
Draw	18%	17%	+1
LASK W win	14%	12%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	67%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	78%	85%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−12
Sturm Graz W or draw	86%	88%	−2
Sturm Graz W clean sheet	45%	–	–
LASK W clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 5.2 4.7 1 11.6 8.3 3.6 2 11.6 9.0 3.7 3 8.4 6.4 2.6 4 4.8 3.6 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Sturm Graz W down, LASK W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 547 Frauenliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauenliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sturm Graz W at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). LASK W away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Sturm Graz W, 0.81 for LASK W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LAS 0–2 STU · STU 0–1 LAS · LAS 1–4 STU · LAS 2–1 STU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 29 Aug

STURM GRAZ W

WWWLDW3–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

LASK W

DLDWLW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sturm Graz W	10	+16	23
2	Austria Wien W	9	+26	22
3	St. Pölten W	9	+20	22
4	Rheindorf Altach W	9	+4	16
5	Salzburg W	10	−3	16
6	LASK W	10	−3	11
7	First Vienna W	10	−8	8
8	SK Rapid W	9	−9	7
9	Südburgenland W	10	−21	5
10	Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W	10	−22	4